Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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Full hybrid powertrains are not the most cost-efficient way to enhance fuel
efficiency. They will therefore remain a niche technology, at least in markets
with a high share of diesel. We foresee a trend toward developing full hybrids
into PHEVs (see section 2.2), owing to the significant extra potential
for reducing CO 2 and limited extra costs for a slightly larger battery.
If automakers apply the technologies described above in advanced gasoline
powertrains, they can potentially achieve savings of more than 40% compared
to standard powertrains with a naturally aspirated, four-valve port
injection engine.
The first step in this process would be to make a number of smaller enhancements,
such as reduced engine friction through optimized bearing,
an integrated exhaust manifold, a cooling system with an adjustable water
pump, optimized gearbox ratios and so on. This would lower CO 2 emissions
by up to 9%.
Future best-in-class gasoline engines will be significantly downsized, with
much less displacement and fewer cylinders than today's engines. They will
feature direct injection and a variable valve train, and will be supported by
a micro-hybrid or mild hybrid powertrain.