Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing Despite growing environmental awareness in society, studies have repeatedly shown that customers are only willing to pay a limited price for being green. That price is generally put at around EUR 2,000 in developed markets. This means that EVs and PHEVs must be attractively priced, not only in terms of the initial purchase price, but also the ongoing costs each month (i.e. TCO, the total cost of ownership). We expect vehicle costs for EVs (excluding the battery) to be very similar in the long run to comparable ICEs. The Mitsubishi iMiEV, currently in its first sales year, sells for around JPY 4 million, for instance, but significant price reductions are expected when it achieves bigger sales volumes after 2012. The key drivers for attractive EV pricing are therefore battery prices, fuel prices and government subsidies or tax benefits. Assuming additional costs of EUR 7,500 (approximately USD 10,000) for EVs after their initial market launch phase, European fuel prices of EUR 1.40 per liter and electricity prices of EUR 0.20 per kWh, the monthly total costs including vehicle lease for an EV would already be comparable to those of ICE-powered vehicles (on the basis of 1,000 km per month). This calculation takes into account a one-time leasing down payment that is approximately EUR 2,000 higher than that of a comparable ICE-powered vehicle, and no subsidies or tax benefits. In fact, one-time purchase tax benefits of more than EUR 2,000 are either already in place or under discussion in many markets worldwide. Annual tax benefits for EVs, thanks to their zero emissions, are also likely. This could make EVs a very attractive choice in terms of price even in the early phase of their market development. This remains the case even if we assume additional monthly costs for access to the newly-built public infrastructure. When it comes to PHEVs, the picture is more complex. The monthly fuel price comparison depends on the split between electric and gasoline-based driving. This in turn depends on the electric driving range (i.e. the battery size), the availability of the recharging infrastructure and the customer's specific pattern of mobility.
63 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" Driver 3a: Fuel and electricity prices The price of fuel is driven by two things: the price of oil and the amount of tax levied on fuel. Crude oil is sold on a global basis, so only minor variations occur between regions. Our assumption here is that the price of crude will increase over time due to growing demand and limited supply. Tax levels, on the other hand, are set by individual governments. Western European countries tend to have the highest fuel taxes. Germany, for instance, imposes a tax of EUR 0.66 per liter excluding VAT. Other countries such as the US have significantly lower fuel taxes. In January 2009, China introduced a fuel tax of CNY 1 per liter. These differences in tax levels obviously have a significant impact on the overall price of fuel. Electricity prices also vary significantly. This variation is due not only to country-specific taxes but also to the different sources of production: nuclear, wind, etc. As a result, the monthly cost benefits of switching from gasoline to electricity depend very much on the energy price structure in the region or country in question.
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Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
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2 | Study Contents Executive summar
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4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
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6 | Study Introduction There can be
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8 | Study These developments have r
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10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
Page 14 and 15: 12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
Page 16 and 17: 14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
Page 18 and 19: 16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
Page 20 and 21: 18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
Page 22 and 23: 20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
Page 24 and 25: 22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
Page 30 and 31: 28 | Study
Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 56 and 57: 54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the dev
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61: 58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63: 60 | Study The first generation of
Page 66 and 67: 64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 68 and 69: 66 | Study For all intents and purp
Page 70 and 71: 68 | Study Given these uncertaintie
Page 72 and 73: 70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75: 72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 76 and 77: 74 | Study At the same time, key Eu
Page 78 and 79: 76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81: 78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83: 80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85: 82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87: 84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89: 86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91: 88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93: 90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95: 92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97: 94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98: 96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
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