Europe - UNEP

Member States to be able to meet the objectives
of the WFD, discussed later in section 3.2.
2.5 CLIMATE CHANGE
(From top) Visitors tour the Topkapi Palace on a rainy day in Istanbul,
Turkey. Photo credit: Lynette de Silva. Summer rainstorm, Belgrade,
Serbia. Photo credit: Milan Vatovec. Cyclist prepares to navigate
storm water runoff on a Paris street. Photo credit: Sandra Arbogast.
Climate change and the lack of adequate
adaptation strategies is perhaps the biggest threat
to Europe’s water environment at present (EEA,
2007; Flärke, et al, 2004; EEA, 2005). The
potential effects of climate change on Europe’s
water resources is expected to differ across
Europe (UNEP, 2004; IPPC, 2007) (see Map 3 (A)
and (B)). Northern European countries have
already experienced an increase of more than 9%
in annual precipitation between 1946 and 1999.
In contrast, decreases in precipitation have been
observed in Southern and Central Europe (EEA,
2003a). A 2007 IPPC report predicts that water
stress will increase over central and southern
Europe from 19% to 35% by 2070. In arid
countries like Spain, climate change could
exacerbate land degradation on agricultural
landscapes. Moreover, a predicted temperature
increase from 1 o C to 3.5 o C could cause snow to
melt earlier, increasing winter runoff and reducing
the thawing process in spring and summer that
will affect how international waters are utilised
(Krinner, 2000). A rise in temperature in the last
few decades has already led glaciers to shrink;
alpine glaciers have lost more than 25% of their
volume between 1975 and 2000 and it is
predicted that half of Europe’s alpine glaciers
could disappear by 2025 (UNEP, 2004).
Many areas of Europe already experience
extreme floods and droughts. Since 1988, an
estimated 700 fatalities have occurred due to
floods in Europe, around half a million people
have been displaced, and economic losses have
amounted to at least 25 billion euro (EEA,
2003b). Flooding is the most common natural
hazard in Europe, with 188 flood events being
recorded between 1980 and 2000 (UNEP, 2004).
Areas particularly prone to flood events include
the Mediterranean coasts, the Netherlands,
South-East United Kingdom, Northern German
coastal plains, the Rhine, Seine, Po, and Loire
Valleys, coastal areas of Portugal, and alpine
valleys (Krinner, 1999). An example of extreme
risk is the Rhine basin where more than 10
26 — Hydropolitical Vulnerability and Resilience along International Waters: Europe