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The value of vaccination 237
Table 1 Projected costs and economic benefits of the expanded GAVI immunization program
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total cost ($million)
638 652 583 659 790 862 761 762 1,023 1,051 1,059 994 896 769 727 748
Deaths averted
732,673 855,998 923,529 993,2471,052,6961,125,2751,229,8831,349,5841,608,9991,741,2841,913,958 1,955,902 1,973,229 1,990,757 2,002,458 2,014,390
$ cost per death averted
871 761 632 663 750 766 619 565 636 604 553 508 454 386 363 371
Reduction in under 5 mortality rate (per 1000)
4.10 4.89 5.43 6.00 6.45 7.11 7.82 8.60 10.20 11.08 12.24 12.43 12.49 12.54 12.56 12.57
Total increase in adult survival rate (per 1000)
6.61 7.87 8.74 9.64 10.37 11.43 12.56 13.81 16.38 17.80 19.65 19.97 20.06 20.14 20.17 20.19
Increase in life expectancy (years)
0.58 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.91 1.00 1.10 1.21 1.44 1.56 1.73 1.76 1.76 1.77 1.77 1.78
Average percentage increase in income for all children in that cohort
0.78 0.93 1.03 1.14 1.23 1.35 1.48 1.63 1.93 2.10 2.32 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.39
Increased annual earnings per child in the cohort
4.61 5.49 6.10 6.73 7.24 7.98 8.77 9.64 11.43 12.43 13.72 13.94 14.00 14.06 14.08 14.10
Increase in total cohort income per year, once earning starts ($millions)
410 492 550 610 661 732 809 895 1068 1168 1297 1326 1340 1355 1365 1376
Internal rate of return
12.4% 13.2% 14.4% 14.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0% 15.5% 14.9% 15.2% 15.8% 16.2% 16.9% 17.8% 18.2% 18.0%