Watershed Conservation Plan - Destination Erie

Figure 5.27. Estimated water use from water suppliers using >10,000 gallons per day in the Erie
County portion of the study area, 1995 (data from Buckwalter et al. 1996).
It is impossible to predict with certainty how climate change may affect water supply and us patterns
in the future. Buckwalter et al. (1996) report that population declines in the City of Erie from 1980 to 1990
were accompanied by increasing population in outlying townships, resulting in increased demand for
groundwater for private residential and public-supply use. This situation prompted the expansion of water
supply infrastructure since 1993 (described above), which resulted in increased use of surface water from
Lake Erie (purchased from the Erie City Water Authority). It is likely that ongoing climate change will
exacerbate this situation. Forecasts regarding hydrological phenomena expected to accompany climate change
in the next 50–100 years predict that groundwater supplies will decrease due to reduced summer precipitation,
increased evaporation, and reduced groundwater recharge rates (Kling and Wuebbles 2003). This, in turn,
will result in "pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes" and result in increased problems
with water pollution (Kling and Wuebbles 2003). The high costs of connecting to public water systems would
likely lead many rural property owners to prefer to continue using their own private wells.
Considering the current importance of groundwater for domestic and agricultural users, a forecast of
reduced groundwater availability in the future suggests a need for regional planning to educate the public
about likely future changes in water availability, and to develop strategies for implementing a water
conservation and use plan that will address the future needs of rural domestic and agricultural water
consumers. The agricultural community, in particular, may need to develop marketing plans for new, less
water dependent commodities, or phase into production modified methods that use less (or recycle more)
water. It is especially important that steps be taken to safeguard the groundwater supplies that are critical to
the prosperity of communities in the Girard area and further west. In particular, the area along both sides of
Route 20 west of Fairview is apparently a major groundwater recharge area for large capacity wells that
supply Girard and Lake City Boroughs, in addition to many private wells on farm and residential properties
within the lake plain (see 5.9 Groundwater and Figure 5.12). This area is vulnerable to commercial and
residential development that could compromise the quality and quantity of groundwater resources and
compound the threat to groundwater supplies posed by impending climate change.
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