Watershed Conservation Plan - Destination Erie

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6.3.4 Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Forests Predictions of the effect of modified temperature and rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States include possible major changes in the mix of forest tree species (Subak 2000); in particular, maple–beech–birch forests may decline and be replaced by oak–hickory forests. Subak (2000) suggests that combined changes in climate and vegetation will negatively affect migratory bird habitats and contribute to a general decline in bird community diversity in our region. The forecast for the Great Lakes region (Sousounis and Glick 2000) similarly predicts that warmer summers may cause reduction or loss of some conifer and broadleaf tree species in Great Lakes forests. Sousounis and Glick (2000) also indicate that animal species dependent upon specific habitats (migratory wood warblers) may suffer declines, especially in the upper Great Lakes states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. Michigan and Minnesota are expected to possibly lose more than 50% of their wood warbler species. Warmer and wetter climate expected across the Great Lakes region, coupled with CO 2 enrichment, may lead to increased yields of some crops through 2050, followed by declines from 2051 to 2100 in the southern Great Lakes (Sousounis and Glick 2000). This report suggests (and the authors of this plan concur) that research is needed on the ability of vegetation communities to respond to global warming, and how the dynamic of land use and management will interact with climate change. Sousounis and Glick (2000) specifically recommend that adaptive management strategies should be used with forestry and land management, and that tree planting and crop operations should select plant varieties more adaptable to our changing climate. At least one authoritative research investigation has already been carried out to gauge which local tree species will likely decline with continuing climate change, and which species are likely to increase. Iverson and Prasad (1998) used geographic information systems (GIS) to combine predictions for future temperature and precipitation (from several different global climate models) with county-specific Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data and local soils, land use, and elevation data to evaluate potential population shifts for 80 different tree species in the eastern United States. Their model provides specific predictions of future changes in the distribution of tree species for over 2000 counties east of the 100th meridian, including Erie and Crawford Counties. Iverson and Prasad's (1998) models predicts that many of the most important native tree species in the study area will have their "ecological optima" shift at least 100 km (62 mi) to the north. Declines in the study area are predicted for sugar maple, American beech, eastern hemlock, white pine, yellow birch, red maple, and others. The models predict that several tree species that currently have a more southern distribution, such as sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) and chinkapin oak (Quercus muehlenbergii), will shift northward into the greater study area (Iverson and Prasad 1998). One of the more disturbing implications of these predictions is the likely impact of diminished numbers of hemlock and white pine on the study area's coniferous and mixed forests, which have already been reduced by selective harvesting and are critically important for wildlife habitat (PGC 2005) and water-quality protection. 7 RECREATIONAL RESOURCES AND PUBLIC INTERACTION WITH THE PENNSYLVANIA LAKE ERIE WATERSHED 7.1. Recognized Recreational Resources As noted above in this document (see chapter 1), surveys of the study area's residents conducted by LERC in 2002 and 2003 as part of the present project indicate a general satisfaction with the region's many and varied recreational opportunities. This speaks well of the accessibility and quality of the study area's waters and related land-based resources, but also underscores the importance that these natural resources be protected from unsustainable development and the pollution that accompanies it. Responses made by study area residents surveyed in 2003 regarding outdoor recreational interests are graphically represented in Figure 7.1. Picnicking (92%), motor boating (88%), swimming (87%), and fishing (86%) are the activities showing the highest satisfaction ratings among those surveyed, closely followed by non-motor boating, hunting, bicycling, and hiking in equal percentages (85%). 136
Figure 7.1. Responses made by study area residents surveyed by LERC in 2003 regarding outdoor recreational interests. Activities showing somewhat lower—but still relatively favorable—satisfaction ratings include wildlife viewing (81%) and birdwatching (76%). The survey's favorable satisfaction ratings show a clear preference for water-based activities while, interestingly, activities garnering the survey's highest dissatisfaction ratings (i.e., hiking [13%], bicycling [12%], swimming [10%], hunting [8%], and wildlife viewing [7%]) are for the most part land-based activities dependent upon adequately developed facilities for their pursuit. This suggests that facilities for land-based recreation activities within the study area are considered at least somewhat inadequate by the survey respondents. The spatial distribution of the study area's recreational resources and access points for both aquatic and land-based recreation is shown in Figures 7.2 and 7.3. 7.1.2 Aquatic Recreation It is quite likely that the scores assigned to the highest rated activities indicated by LERC's survey are directly related to the study area's ready access to Lake Erie's waters and beaches via popular points such as Presque Isle State Park in the central portion of the study area; Shades Beach Park and Halli Reed Park (Freeport Beach) in the eastern reaches of the study area; and Raccoon Creek Park and the new (as yet, undeveloped) Erie Bluffs State Park in the west. Additionally, boating and fishing access to the lake proper, via both private craft and commercial tours, is well-provided for by 12 of the study area's 13 public or semi-public areas noted by the Pennsylvania Fish & Boat Commission (see Figures 7.1 and 7.2) as well as numerous private marinas and boating/yacht clubs. The vast majority of boating in the study area, incidentally—whether motorized or non-motorized—is also lake-based, as only one of the study area's tributary streams (Conneaut Creek) is sufficiently deep for non-motorized boating, solely, and at that only on a seasonal basis. The high satisfaction score recorded for fishing in the watershed is not exclusively lake-based, however, and certainly bears some relation to the study area's many excellent opportunities for stream fishing and its very successful Lake Erie tributary steelhead trout fishery. The study areas includes 11 tributary streams that are listed by FishErie (2008) as trout stream fisheries (Table 7.1). The majority of the study area's stream fishing is done in its western portion (Murray and Shields 2004:Table 11), which exhibits larger volume streams and provides vastly superior public access. Surveys conducted by Murray and Shields (2004) suggest that angler trips to the study area's streams have increased from 72,413 trips in 1993 to 200, 816 trips in 2003, and that these trips accounted for almost $9.5 million in angler-related 137
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Pennsylvania Rivers Conservation Pr
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land to development. Strong communi
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Human resources available to facili
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other communities, organizations, a
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TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures .
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8.3 Sustainable Development and Gov
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Figure 5.14. Average summer phospho
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Figure 10.3. Management Areas propo
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND PLAN AUTHORSHIP
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working with interested teacher and
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Figure 1.3. Perceived importance of
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1.3 Watershed Plan Focus The primar
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Figure 2.2. Detail of the south-cen
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Figure 2.4. Physiographic provinces
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westward. Although the paucity of f
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via the Erigan River, a major river
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Warren and Whittlesey can be found
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evised paleoenvironmental picture,
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characteristic ground stone tools,
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phase represent the most common Lat
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including flexed and extended inhum
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with the appearance of European tra
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The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania wa
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of $800 for the purchase of The Tri
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In addition to these townships, the
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Pittsburgh Railroad had reached New
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Figure 3.3. Density of registered a
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the Whittlesey and Warren III stran
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Table 3.3. Properties in the Study
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Table 3.3—continued Name Address
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Table 3.3—continued Name Address
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"Little Ice Age"), and the validity
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"massasaugies" (Eastern Massasauga
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eport (Col. John Fleeharty) lamente
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flowing streams. The starting point
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elow the park." Apparently the pump
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A submerged arching sand feature is
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of the lake plain and upland areas
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characteristics, and are important
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Lake section (see Figure 2.4). Nota
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Figure 5.2. Flow time series for Tw
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Figure 5.4. Flow time series for Co
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Figure 5.8. Flow per square mile pe
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area that have thicker glacial depo
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Table 5.4. Protected Water Uses for
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Stream Zone County 3—East Branch
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5.10.2 Permitted Discharges The two
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Figure 5.14. Average summer phospho
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Figure 5.15. Graphical analyses of
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Figure 5.17. Average summer nitrate
Page 105 and 106: Figure 5.19. Mercury concentrations
Page 107 and 108: Figure 5.20. Map showing locations
Page 109 and 110: Figure 5.22. Number of stream miles
Page 111 and 112: 91 Figure 5.24. Results of Campbell
Page 113 and 114: Table 5.6. Range in Number of E. co
Page 115 and 116: Figure 5.26. Maximum E. coli counts
Page 117 and 118: The recent investigation completed
Page 119 and 120: Figure 5.30. Sources of known nondo
Page 121 and 122: 6 NATURAL RESOURCES 6.1 Animal Life
Page 123 and 124: Rank Status Taxon Common Name Globa
Page 125 and 126: Table 6.2. Pennsylvania Vertebrate
Page 127 and 128: Table 6.3. Noted Occurrence of Spaw
Page 129 and 130: Figure 6.4. Water quality designati
Page 131 and 132: Figure 6.6. Fishing hours spent on
Page 133 and 134: Figure 6.7. Comparative analysis of
Page 135 and 136: Figure 6.9. Percentage breakdown of
Page 137 and 138: A small number of the birds listed
Page 139 and 140: phytoplankton by Dreissena allows l
Page 141 and 142: populations increase. Corbicula flu
Page 143 and 144: Rank Status Taxon Common name Globa
Page 145 and 146: Rank Status Taxon Common name Globa
Page 147 and 148: Two other forest wetland plant comm
Page 149 and 150: 6.2.4 Emergent Wetlands Over half o
Page 151 and 152: alleghaniensis), sugar maple, red m
Page 153 and 154: Table 6.6.Percentage Composition of
Page 155: Figure 6.18. Detail of the largest
Page 159 and 160: Figure 7.3. Spatial distribution of
Page 161 and 162: Presque Isle State Park is connecte
Page 163 and 164: Table 7.2. Number of Recreational O
Page 165 and 166: lakefront recreational properties,
Page 167 and 168: Map Id Subwatershed Comment 51 41.5
Page 169 and 170: Bayfront Center for Maritime Studie
Page 171 and 172: Other watershed associations or wat
Page 173 and 174: Figure 8.1. Child poverty rates in
Page 175 and 176: comprehensive vision or plan, have
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Page 179 and 180: 5. In order to sustain maximum biod
Page 181 and 182: 10 PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES FOR AC
Page 183 and 184: easements for riparian areas, and p
Page 185 and 186: Table 10.2 Management Areas Defined
Page 187 and 188: Figure 10.2. Example of how GIS can
Page 189 and 190: Figure 10.4. Example of how GIS can
Page 191 and 192: Watershed Portion MAs Main Subwater
Page 193 and 194: Restoration actions Management Area
Page 195 and 196: 11 REFERENCES CITED Abrams, M. D. 2
Page 197 and 198: Broyles, B. J. 1971 Second Prelimin
Page 199 and 200: Cooper, N. L., J. R. Bidwell, and D
Page 201 and 202: Dzurko, Robert 1972 Conneaut Creek
Page 203 and 204: Goodyear, A. C. 1999 The Early Holo
Page 205 and 206: Jasim, S. Y., A. Irabelli, L. Schwe
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Leighton, R. 2006 Pennsylvania Fish
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Michaels, A. 2005 Pennsylvania Has
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2007d Waterways, Wetlands, and Eros
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Richardson, J. B., and J. B. Peters
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Soon, W. and S. Baliunas 2003 Proxy
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Tomikel and Shepps 1967 Trasande, L
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Whitley, D. S., and R. I. Dorn 1993
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Preparing For Watershed Conservatio
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Introduction (cont’d) In March of
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Executive Summary Overall, responde
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Executive Summary (cont’d) Cont
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Summary Of Key Groups (cont’d) Ur
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Please Indicate Whether You Agree,
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In Your Opinion, Is The Need For Im
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If You Had To Choose Between Proper
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Favorite Locations For Recreation I
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Favorite Motor Boating Locations To
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Favorite Hiking Locations Location
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Favorite Swimming Locations Total R
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Knowledge Of Historic And Prehistor
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Support For Stream Protection Measu
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LERC Rivers Conservation Plan Publi
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• Mason: As far as education, get
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• Kloss: Educate people about Act
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Great Lakes Commission http://www.g
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Center for Economic and Environment
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The Erie County portion of the Penn
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Feature Parameters Parameter Variab
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Feature Parameters Parameter Variab
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