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246 SPACE, SPY SHIPS AND SCANDALS
fabulous anthropological knowledge that Brixmis had developed
over twenty years of watching its subject provided the key
warning indicator. It had observed the Red Army going out on
exercise countless times, and knew how it behaved. A routine
exercise provided an opportunity to leave broken or faulty
vehicles in barracks to be worked on by engineers. What marked
this out as the 'real thing' was that the Soviets took everything
with them. Vehicles were piled high with personal effects,
showing that the troops were not expecting to come back for
some time. Unserviceable vehicles were also taken. Indeed, there
were so many of these that the Soviets ran out of towing chains,
and made makeshift ones by plaiting fence chains together. This
was a small detail, but to the expert watchers of Brixmis it spoke
volumes. The Soviets were definitely up to something. 6
Why did the JIC get the invasion of Czechoslovakia so badly
wrong, despite such excellent indicators Quite simply because
its chairman, a rather lofty diplomat called Denis Greenhill,
refused to accept the evidence that was staring him in the face.
He insisted that the Soviet mobilisation was only an attempt to
apply psychological pressure, and argued that if he was in the
Soviets' shoes he would think the wave of international criticism
an invasion would provoke too high a price to pay. In other
words, he thought like a British decision-maker, not a Russian
one - a classic example of a basic analytical mistake called 'mirrorimaging'.
The CIA made much the same mistake, and only the
West Germans accurately predicted the invasion. After the
inquiry, Dick White decided to beef up the Defence Intelligence
Staff. His chosen instrument was the redoubtable Admiral Louis
Le Bailly, whom he made Director General of Intelligence, or
'DGI', at the Ministry of Defence. The DGI became Deputy Chair
of the Joint Intelligence Committee, sitting alongside the senior
military intelligence officer, who was already a member of the
committee. The DGI was also boosted with his own personal
staff. Thereafter, the diplomats and the military fought for control
of Britain's central intelligence machinery.7
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