Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Description Inefficient “Account” Structure Work is subdivided into accounts with ownership; provides basis for accountability; ownership inhibits sharing, cooperation, and collaboration; encourages “stovepiping” in collection disciplines. Evidence-Based Scientism Tyranny of Current Intelligence Descriptive and explanatory intelligence support current policy and military operations; less support for anticipatory intelligence; analysis needs to be “augmented and leavened with intuition, curiosity, and a thirst for discovery – all essential elements of good science.” Response to customers’ current concerns; support to current, ongoing military operations; little longterm research. Over-Emphasis on Production Databases need filling; scheduled reports and assessments must be produced on time; metrics for success measure data collected and processed; number of reports issued used to determine and justify resources allocated. Over-Reliance on Previous Judgments Previous reports presumed to be authoritative; previous reports combined to form new judgments; agreed-upon positions retained despite newer contradictory evidence. Table 6: Cooper’s Analytic Pathologies Source: Summarized from Cooper, Pathologies, 30–39. become a first line of defense in preventing the networks of errors from developing – they are like “ripstops” that keep problems from propagating into wider “error-inducing systems,” in [Charles] Perrow’s terms. 199 199 Jeffrey Cooper, email to the author, 31 March 2006. Cooper refers to Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999). – 82 –
Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Neglect of Research Neglect of Anticipatory Intelligence Loss of “Keystone Species” and “Intellectual Middleware” Description Short–term taskings prevent longer–term research; reward structure favors current reporting, not longer term work; stunts development of deep target expertise. “Information Revolution” leaves intelligence competing with journalism and Internet for policymakers’ attention; lack of predictive intelligence against new emerging threats ensures continuing failures to warn. Periodic reductions in force skew analyst demographics; “Keystone Species” (journeymen analysts) lacking; journeymen do bulk of professional maintenance; essential for knowledge retention and transfer to apprentices; maintain “intellectual Middleware” or deep understanding of analytic domains and processes. Lack of Analytic Tools and Methods of Validation Available and proposed tools not formally validated for accuracy and usefulness; focus on results, not processes, to determine success. Hindrances of Security Mindset Security procedures impede multi–source analysis; protection of sources and methods more important than “effective exploitation and cross–fertilization;” artificial and outdated mission distinctions prevent collaboration. Critical thinking combats this by enhancing the processes by which decisions are made and by which such processes are reviewed. This paper focuses primarily on individual experience, and of course, intelligence corporations are made up of individuals. If a sufficient number of intelligence professionals are thinking critically, it is likely they will transform their corporations, if only through the sheer attrition of non-critically thinking managers and leaders who are – 83 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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- and consequences - things that do
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approach ensures that a topic or is
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Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
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A Disposition to Think Critically I
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The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
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problem solving and structured meth
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In fact, the Soviets were able to d
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It should be noted that the U.S. In
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thwarted What can be learned to adv
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Purpose · Determine what is going
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critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
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Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
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Page 97 and 98: they were required to examine. 173
Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
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Page 105: thinking, however, by providing str
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Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
Page 141 and 142: Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144: Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146: __________. Building Airplanes in F
Page 147 and 148: Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150: Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152: Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154: Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156: Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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