Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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a solution to the issue. Differences among various analytic methodologies, techniques, and tools are not trivial. In fact, comparing the results of different analysis methods can be a valid means of establishing the accuracy of the answer. If various means of analysis yield multiple results, a review by different analysts makes for the ideal environment for critical thinking to discuss and debate those results. 134 Therefore, assessment of the available evidence includes redirecting thinking, soliciting feedback from other sources, appraising the quality of possible answers, and comparing initial goals with results. In so doing an analyst employs interpretive and evaluative skills to select the best mass of evidence to analyze. Creating Better Inferences Critical thinking aims to ensure that inferences are reasonable and evidence-based. Inference creation begins at the same time that analysis starts. As each piece, or the whole mass of evidence, is considered, inferences are made. 135 Resulting “chains” of inferences linking the evidence to the hypotheses under consideration are known as arguments. Chains of inferences converge – strengthening the argument – or diverge – weakening it. The self-reflective nature of critical thinking places a check on these inferences. The analyst asks, “Do my inferences flow from the evidence” and, “Are my inferences logical given the evidence and other inferences I have made” Inferences lead to a search for additional evidence. In other words, based on inferences drawn from the evidence at hand, an analyst may infer that there are other sources of evidence to consider. For example, such reasoning was cited in the explanation of why 134 For a more detailed discussion of this and other means of countering biases, see Heuer, Psychology, 170–184; Irving Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, 2 nd Edition (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1982); and Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision-making (New York, NY: McGraw Hill, Inc., 1993). 135 Indeed, the analyst’s acceptance – or rejection – of this evidence is a result of inferences: either the evidence is valid, credible, and relevant, or it is not. – 58 –
the FBI investigated a pond in western Maryland during June 2003, searching for the source of the 2001 anthrax attacks. At the time, the FBI believed their primary suspect lived near the pond in question. In their search for additional evidence, they reasoned that the pond might be something in which evidence had been hidden. Thus, inference led the FBI to drain the pond to search for that evidence. 136 The analyst self-consciously evaluates the thinking process and the biases that have affected it to reduce unproductive thinking and to consciously develop new ways of understanding the evidence at hand. This self-regulation also plays a role as the available evidence is considered. A means of accomplishing this within a collaborative setting is to seek the assistance of colleagues of diverse backgrounds. The underlying premise is that their biases differ sufficiently to enable productive and thorough analysis to occur. 137 Producing Intelligence Analysts who produce intelligence assessments and judgments have the opportunity to employ what Peter Facione considers the core cognitive skills of critical thinking: interpretation, analysis, evaluation, inference, explanation, and self-regulation. 138 Each of these competencies contributes to the integration of available evidence through a clear line of reasoning to the most probable answer. Facione asserts that good critical thinkers can explain “what they think and how they arrived at that judgment.” 139 By documenting the 136 Washington Post, “No Anthrax.” 137 See Robert Callum, “The Case for Cultural Diversity in the Intelligence Community,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence 14, no. 1, Spring 2001: 25–48. 138 Peter A. Facione, Critical Thinking: What It Is and Why It Counts (Milbrae, CA: California Academic Press, 1998, updated 2004), URL, last accessed 22 July 2005, 4. Cited hereafter as Facione, Critical Thinking. 139 Facione, Critical Thinking, 5. – 59 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31 and 32: ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 33 and 34: - and consequences - things that do
Page 35 and 36: approach ensures that a topic or is
Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
Page 95 and 96: time constraints, multiple versions
Page 97 and 98: they were required to examine. 173
Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
Page 129 and 130: • Describe what is needed to move
Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
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Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
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__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
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Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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