Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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easoning process used to arrive at an answer, analysts move beyond merely “stating results [to] justifying procedures, and presenting arguments.” 140 Questioning biases and mindsets encourages consideration of alternative possibilities that overcome what Josh Kerbel refers to as “single–outcome [analytic] trajectories.” 141 Most importantly, analysts demonstrate a critical spirit – a reflection of character. 142 Thus, critical thinking contributes to short-term analysis and assumes an essential role in longer-term analysis. Indeed, building a comprehensive picture of an issue or target requires critical thinking to determine which previous reports are included or excluded. “How do the parts contribute to the whole” is one question the analyst asks. Another is, “How is the whole greater than the sum of its parts” When previously published intelligence reports diverge, the critical thinking process helps the analyst ensure that the divergence is considered fairly and that the resulting intelligence does not merely satisfice. 140 Facione, Critical Thinking, 6. 141 Josh Kerbel, “Thinking Straight: Cognitive Bias in the US Debate about China,” Studies in Intelligence 48 no. 3 (2004), URL: , last accessed 22 February 2006. 142 Facione, Critical Thinking, 7. See also Moore and Krizan, “Intelligence Analysis,” 9–11. – 60 –
How can Analysts be Taught to Think Critically Many people would rather die than think – in fact, they do. Critical Thinking Education Outside the Intelligence Community —Bertrand Russell Critical thinking offers a framework for structured problem solving. Yet, despite a corpus of associated literature, critical thinking remains in its infancy as a discipline. It is still “largely misunderstood…existing more in stereotype than in substance, more in image than in reality.” 143 As Bertrand Russell’s humorous quip reminds us, critical thinking is not a habit acquired by just being alive. Ideally, valuable skills and dispositions should be developed among prospective analysts before they join intelligence-producing corporations. Yet, observations by the author of newly hired intelligence analysts suggest this happens rarely if at all. This raises two questions, “What are the opportunities for prospective analysts to become critical thinkers before they are hired” and often “Why do these opportunities not exist” Despite its importance, critical thinking is not widely taught in schools and universities. A mid-1990s California study on the role of critical thinking in the curricula of 38 public and 28 private universities concluded that the skill is “clearly an honorific phrase in the minds of most educators.” 144 The study concluded that university 143 Richard W. Paul, “A Draft Statement of Principles,” The National Council for Excellence in Critical Thinking, URL: , last accessed March 18, 2003. The reasons why critical thinking remains an undeveloped discipline while important, go beyond the scope of this essay and are not addressed. 144 Richard W. Paul, Linda Elder, and Ted Bartell, “Executive Summary, – 61 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
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Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
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Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
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Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
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Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
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Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
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__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
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Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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