Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Contents
Figures and Tables......................................................................... v
Preface ......................................................................................... vii
Foreword
Mark M. Lowenthal................................................................ ix
Commentary
Jeffrey R. Cooper.................................................................. xiii
Francis J. Hughes.................................................................. xvi
Gregory F. Treverton........................................................... xvii
Acknowledgments....................................................................... xix
Abstract.......................................................................................... 1
Definitions...................................................................................... 2
Introduction: How Do People Reason......................................... 3
What Is Critical Thinking............................................................ 8
Defining Critical Thinking................................................ 8
Standards for Critical Thinking...................................... 10
Skill-Based Definitions..................................................... 13
A Disposition to Think Critically..................................... 15
The Role of Questions.................................................... 17
Pseudo-Critical Thinking................................................ 18
What Can Be Learned from the Past
Thinking Critically about Cuba............................................ 20
Deploying the Missiles..................................................... 20
Assessing the Implications................................................ 24
Between Dogmatism and Refutation............................... 26
Lacking: Disconfirmation................................................ 29
The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis....... 33
Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context..................... 37
Ten Years Later, They Meet Again.................................. 45
Judgment: Critical Thinking Would
Have Made a Difference............................................ 46
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