Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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What Is Critical Thinking Defining Critical Thinking Defining critical thinking is a first step to understanding how it contributes to intelligence analysis. Richard Paul and Linda Elder, of the Foundation for Critical Thinking, consider it to be that mode of thinking – about any subject, content, or problem – in which the [solitary] thinker improves the quality of his or her thinking by skillfully taking charge of the structures inherent in thinking and imposing intellectual standards upon them. 14 In other words, critical thinking is both a deliberate meta-cognitive (thinking about thinking) and cognitive (thinking) act whereby a person reflects on the quality of the reasoning process simultaneously while reasoning to a conclusion. The thinker has two equally important goals: improving the way she or he reasons and coming to a correct solution. 15 To accomplish these goals, the reasoner requires assisting structures. Paul and Elder define eight elements of reasoning, shown in figure 2. These elements lead thinkers to ask focused questions about the topic being considered and the thinking process itself. Paul and Elder assert that whenever people reason, they do so for a purpose. This reasoning exists within a point of view and is shaped by both conscious and unconscious assumptions. Reasoning involves the creation of inferences based on conceptual frameworks about reality. These inferences are generated as people consider evidence necessary to answer questions or solve problems. Further, reasoning leads to decision points with implications – things that might happen 14 Richard Paul and Linda Elder, The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, 4 th Edition (Dillon Beach, CA: The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2004), 1. Cited hereafter as Paul and Elder, Concepts and Tools. 15 Exactly what is the “correct solution” is issue and context dependent. What is important here is that the process of reasoning is enhanced. – –
– and consequences – things that do happen once the decision has been made. Finally, Paul and Elder insist that “learning to analyze thinking requires practice in identifying the structures in use.” 16 Figure 2: Elements of Thought Source: Derived from Richard Paul and Linda Elder, The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, 4th Edition (Dillon Beach, CA: The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2004), 2. 16 Linda Elder and Richard Paul, The Foundations of Analytic Thinking: How to Take Thinking Apart and What to Look for When You Do (Dillon Beach, CA: The Foundation for Critical Thinking, 2003), 5. Cited hereafter as Elder and Paul, Analytic Thinking. Paul and Elder, Concepts and Tools, 2. – –
Page 2 and 3: The National Defense Intelligence C
Page 5 and 6: Contents Figures and Tables........
Page 7: Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
Page 10 and 11: - viii -
Page 12 and 13: As one would expect, the Intelligen
Page 14 and 15: - xii -
Page 16 and 17: quality by looking at the products
Page 18 and 19: Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
Page 20 and 21: That said, clever defense lawyers o
Page 22 and 23: Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
Page 25 and 26: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 27 and 28: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 29 and 30: Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31: ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 35 and 36: approach ensures that a topic or is
Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
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the FBI investigated a pond in west
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How can Analysts be Taught to Think
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young analysts were unable to do so
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it out on their own, encouraged by
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instructional models offer compleme
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Another means of critical thinking
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time constraints, multiple versions
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they were required to examine. 173
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As Denning points out, these strate
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of thinking. For example, two video
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intelligence agencies. 191 This was
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thinking, however, by providing str
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Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
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substantially better judgments abou
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item limit is easily extended: peop
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Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
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partnerships between analysts and t
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1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
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Conclusion Never before in our peac
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Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
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Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
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against which to apply/illustrate w
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mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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• Describe what is needed to move
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Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
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Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146:
__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150:
Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152:
Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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