Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
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How Can <strong>Intelligence</strong> Analysts Employ <strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong>........48<br />
The Poor Record..............................................................48<br />
Assessing Evidence............................................................51<br />
Facilitating Evidentiary Assessment................................. 56<br />
Embracing a Methodology.............................................. 57<br />
Creating Better Inferences............................................... 58<br />
Producing <strong>Intelligence</strong>..................................................... 59<br />
How can Analysts be Taught to Think <strong>Critical</strong>ly...................... 61<br />
<strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong> Education<br />
Outside the <strong>Intelligence</strong> Community......................... 61<br />
<strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong> Education<br />
Inside the <strong>Intelligence</strong> Community............................ 64<br />
Implications of Teaching <strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong>.................... 66<br />
Evaluating Teaching Models........................................... 68<br />
Encouraging Analysts to Think <strong>Critical</strong>ly....................... 69<br />
Persuading to Improve <strong>Analysis</strong>....................................... 70<br />
How Does <strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong> Transform................................... 74<br />
Transforming <strong>Intelligence</strong> Corporations......................... 74<br />
Learning from Early Adopters......................................... 75<br />
The Costs <strong>and</strong> Benefits of <strong>Thinking</strong> <strong>Critical</strong>ly................ 76<br />
Validation......................................................................... 84<br />
What Other Points of View Exist.............................................. 86<br />
What Does the Future Hold....................................................... 90<br />
Conclusion................................................................................... 95<br />
Appendix: NSA’s <strong>Critical</strong> <strong>Thinking</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong> Structured <strong>Analysis</strong> Class Syllabus................................. 97<br />
Bibliography.............................................................................. 117<br />
About the Author....................................................................... 133<br />
Colophon................................................................................... 134<br />
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