Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

etiring from the work force. It should be observed that an Intelligence
Community enterprise-wide emphasis on developing critical thinking
skills at all levels would speed the process.
Validation
A critically thinking Intelligence Community remains essential
for effective intelligence reform. Steven Rieber and Neil Thomason
advance this argument in their recent article. The authors assert
that “the opinions of experts regarding which methods [of analysis]
work may be misleading or seriously wrong.” 200
Unfortunately, as
the authors show, past (and present) efforts at intelligence reform
rely on expert intuitive judgments. However, “[examples] from a
wide range of fields show that expert opinion about which methods
work are often [not only] dead wrong…but also are generally not
self-correcting.” 201
Further support of Rieber’s thesis is seen in devil’s
advocacy – not as theoretically applicable but as practiced. They
cite Irving Janis who, quoting a Stanford political scientist, notes
that “instead of stirring up much-needed turbulence among the
members of a policymaking group, [devil’s advocacy] may create
‘the comforting feeling that they have considered all sides of the
issue.’” 202
To mitigate this and similar analysis-improvement fallacies,
Rieber and Thomason argue that improvements in analysis and
any proposed methods of judgment and decision-making require
validation through scientific study. They note, for example, that
research reveals “[a] certain cognitive style, marked by an openmindedness
and skepticism toward grand theories, is associated with
200 Rieber and Thomason, “Creation of a National Institute for Analytic
Methods,” 71.
201 Rieber and Thomason, “Creation of a National Institute for Analytic
Methods,” 72.
202 Irving L. Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and
Fiascoes, 2 nd edition. (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin and Company, 1982), 268.
Referenced in Rieber and Thomason, “Creation of a National Institute for
Analytic Methods,” 73.
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