Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

although “analysts can change an opinion based on new information
or by revisiting old information with a new hypothesis,” they perceive
a loss of trust and respect and a subsequent loss of “social capital,
or power, within [their] group.” 170
Yet, a case can be made that analysts, and especially experienced
analysts, will benefit the most from enhanced critical thinking skills
training. These are the analysts who are in positions of technical
leadership, who work the most difficult aspects of complex targets.
There may be significant consequences if they fail to notice and
make sense of an issue. On the other hand, the fact that many of
these senior personnel will soon be eligible for retirement raises an
important question: Does the corporation get added value from
teaching analysts who will soon retire to think more critically in their
analysis if they are predisposed not to do so Maybe so. Heuer,
while the head of CIA’s Methods and Forecasting Division found
that analysts, once persuaded to use new analytic methods, found
them “interesting and well worth doing.” 171
Other intelligence analysts have adopted new analytic methods
that add value to their analyses. In one example, NSA personnel
involved in research and development adopted a means of matching
target characteristics and their vulnerabilities with exploitation
capabilities and their costs. 172
Such analyses helped ensure that
appropriate resources were dedicated to collection and that such
collection was better tailored to production analysts’ needs. However,
some research analysts initially refused to employ the model, claiming
it took too much time even as it reduced the volumes of information
170 Johnston, Analytic Culture, 22.
171 Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Adapting Academic Methods and Models to Governmental
Needs: The CIA Experience (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War
College, 31 July 1978), 5. Referenced in Marrin, “Homeland Security,” 9.
172 In this context, a “target” refers to an entity – geographical, individual,
or topical – in which the Intelligence Community has an interest.
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