Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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thinking in intelligence analysis. 157 Evidence becomes intelligence through an “ordered thinking process [involving] careful judgments or judicious evaluations leading to defensible conclusions” – through critical thinking. 158 Former CIA analyst Morgan Jones asserts that methods for critical thinking and problem solving, if applied, can improve the quality of analysis and decisionmaking. 159 Implications of Teaching Critical Thinking Although Sherman Kent, Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and others have over the years addressed intelligence analysis and its relationship with critical thinking, recent presidential executive orders and legislative mandates are bringing a new emphasis to how the Intelligence Community can change analytic practices to achieve improved outcomes. Teaching analysts to be better critical thinkers may be seen as an easy way to satisfy these requirements. However, linkages between intelligence analysis and critical thinking remain poorly understood. Considerable confusion remains about what constitutes critical thinking and how it supports intelligence analysis. A common excuse among analysts to defend their “non-use of such self-conscious processes is a lack of time.” 160 Teaching critical thinking skills is of little value if analysts are not inclined to use them. 161 For those who are willing to think critically, various 157 The Director of National Intelligence, John D. Negroponte, in the Foreword of the initial National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: Office of the DNI, October 2005), wrote that one of the three principal tasks for the reformed Intelligence Community is to “bring more depth and accuracy to intelligence analysis.” See http://www.dni.gov/NISOctober2005. pdf. 158 Moore and Krizan, “Intelligence Analysis,” 14. 159 Morgan D. Jones, The Thinker’s Toolkit: 14 Powerful Techniques for Problem Solving (New York, NY: Random House, Inc, 1995), xi. Cited hereafter as Jones, Thinker’s Toolkit. 160 Stephen Marrin, email to the author, December 8, 2003. The author has heard similar complaints from analysts at NSA and DIA. 161 Linda Elder, Alec Fisher, Diane Halpern, Gerald Nosich, Richard Paul, and others develop and publish the materials for – as well as teach – such courses. – 66 –
instructional models offer complementary means of expanding and enhancing analysts’ skills. For example, in an area studies class on Russia, students might be asked to evaluate and comment in depth on what different sources say about the influence of organized crime on the national government. Alternatively, critical thinking can be injected into the course as part of a problem-solving curriculum. Here students focus on how they think as they apply different strategies to each assignment, and then, ideally, transfer those enhanced skills to their day-to-day analysis. The use of realistic case studies makes classroom-acquired knowledge actionable. Self-reflective and groupreflective analyses of the process of reasoning keep the classes focused toward the working environment of analysts. Such transformations involve behavior modification and as such take time. Participants engaged in such instruction cannot be expected to become critical thinkers in a one-day or even a week-long course. The instructors of the NSA course attempt over a period of 10 weeks to transform their students into critical thinkers. Some other Community efforts also provide instruction over an extended period. Even so, students leaving the course are still novices in this practice and can slip back to their old methods of reasoning. Becoming critical thinkers requires a change in behavior that extends long past the end of the formal instruction. There is no substitute for continued practice. Finally, it serves critically thinking analysts poorly if their management and corporations are indisposed toward the application of the skills. It is well known that “engendering the desire to use [critical thinking] as a favored means of problem solving and decision making prepares the ground for teaching and learning the [critical thinking] skills.” 162 Such encouragement can occur in the classroom but its effectiveness is limited unless the corporation encourages and welcomes strategies to employ critical thinking in the workplace. However, there are few metrics for determining the effectiveness of these materials and courses and so their value remains undetermined. The fact that the books developed for, and used in, such courses remain in print (in successive editions) is an indicator that at least this approach is popular, if not effective. 162 Facione, “Disposition.” – 67 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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- and consequences - things that do
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approach ensures that a topic or is
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Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
Page 95 and 96: time constraints, multiple versions
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Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
Page 129 and 130: • Describe what is needed to move
Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
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__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
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Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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