Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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Standards for Critical Thinking Figure 3: A Continuum of Intellectual Standards Source: Derived from Paul and Elder, Concepts and Tools, 9. Paul and Elder also establish a set of intellectual standards that offer criteria for assessing the level and quality of thinking. These form a continuum as shown in figure 3. 17 Active – or Socratic – questioning in a social setting becomes the means of critically exploring a topic or discipline as well as assessing the thinking on that topic. Questions assessing the issue delve into purpose, assumptions, inferences, as well as points of view on a topic. 18 Paul and Elder’s 17 Elder and Paul, Analytic Thinking. 1–17. 18 Paul and Elder, Concepts and Tools, 2–9. – 10 –
approach ensures that a topic or issue is thoroughly, logically, and objectively developed. Their continuum provides qualitative metrics to inform the thinker and others who may evaluate the object of the thinking along with the process employed. Each standard is related to but independent of the others. The object of consideration might be vaguely or clearly presented. But it also might be inaccurate. An example of this would be “the world is flat.” This clear statement of reality is false. The reasoning or its object might be clearly and accurately presented but remain imprecise, the level of detail required depending on the issue itself. Precision becomes important in assessing the location of an adversary or a threat as in “terrorists placed the improvised explosive device (IED) near the highway.” It is possible to create clear, accurate, and precise answers that are irrelevant. If one is considering the IED along the highway but the issue is how best to fly the troops in question from one location to another then the answer is irrelevant. Similarly, topics and their accompanying reasoning need to consider both the complexities involved (depth) and other points of view (breadth). 19 Such reasoning becomes essential when systems must be assessed because in systems “chains of consequences extend over time and many areas: The effects of action are always multiple.” 20 Intelligence often must assess such systems – terrorist networks are but one example. Additionally, as sociologist Emile Durkheim observes, the combinations of elements related to an issue “combine and thereby produce, by the fact of their combination, new phenomena.” 21 When the correct phenomena or questions – and related alternative explanations – are not fully considered, intelligence failures occur. For instance, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence 19 Elder and Paul, Analytic Thinking, 7. 20 Robert Jervis, System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 10. Cited hereafter as Jervis, System Effects. 21 Emile Durkheim, The Rules of Sociological Method (Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 1938), xlvii. – 11 –
Page 2 and 3: The National Defense Intelligence C
Page 5 and 6: Contents Figures and Tables........
Page 7: Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
Page 10 and 11: - viii -
Page 12 and 13: As one would expect, the Intelligen
Page 14 and 15: - xii -
Page 16 and 17: quality by looking at the products
Page 18 and 19: Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
Page 20 and 21: That said, clever defense lawyers o
Page 22 and 23: Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
Page 25 and 26: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 27 and 28: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 29 and 30: Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31 and 32: ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 33: - and consequences - things that do
Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
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How can Analysts be Taught to Think
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young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90:
it out on their own, encouraged by
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instructional models offer compleme
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Another means of critical thinking
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time constraints, multiple versions
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they were required to examine. 173
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As Denning points out, these strate
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of thinking. For example, two video
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intelligence agencies. 191 This was
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thinking, however, by providing str
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Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
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substantially better judgments abou
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item limit is easily extended: peop
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Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
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partnerships between analysts and t
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1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
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Conclusion Never before in our peac
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Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
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Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
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against which to apply/illustrate w
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mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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• Describe what is needed to move
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Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140:
Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144:
Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146:
__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152:
Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154:
Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156:
Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
Page 157 and 158:
About the Author David T. Moore is
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