Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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Element of Thinking Considerations as seen from Castro’s Point of View Purpose · Preserve Regime Point of View · United States threatens regime Assumptions · A second invasion will be attempted Implications · Invasion might succeed · War: conventional or nuclear Evidence · U.S. armed forces formidable Inferences · U.S. can overcome unaided Cuban forces. Concepts · Military strategy and doctrine, communist and capitalist theories Key Questions · How to deter United States from invading island Table 3: A Comparative Assessment of Rival Motivations Source: Developed by author. – 38 –
as seen from Khrushchev’s Point of View · Protect Cuba from United States · Force concessions from United States · Remove U.S. and NATO from Berlin · Spread Communism · Preserve Regime Considerations as seen from Kennedy’s Point of View · Get the missiles out of Cuba · Defend U.S. and allies against Communism · Preserve Regime · United States a threat to Communism · Cuba threatened with invasion · Missiles in Cuba bargaining points · Missiles in Cuba protect Castro · Effort will be successful. · U.S. concessions · War: conventional or nuclear · U.S. armed forces formidable · U.S. can overcome unaided Cuban forces. · Missiles provide necessary aid · United States will concede. · Military strategy and doctrine, communist and capitalist theories · How to deter United States from invading Cuba · How to dominate the United States · Communism threatens United States · Missiles are a threat · Small Soviet Force · Strategy of removal is possible · Successful removal · Escalation of measures · War: conventional or nuclear · Administration politically vulnerable over crisis · Khrushchev is a formidable adversary · Khrushchev is bluffing · Khrushchev will back down · Military option not required · Military strategy and doctrine, communist and capitalist theories · Monroe Doctrine · How to get the Soviets and their missiles off of Cuba – 39 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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- viii -
Page 12 and 13: As one would expect, the Intelligen
Page 14 and 15: - xii -
Page 16 and 17: quality by looking at the products
Page 18 and 19: Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
Page 20 and 21: That said, clever defense lawyers o
Page 22 and 23: Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
Page 25 and 26: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 27 and 28: CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 29 and 30: Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31 and 32: ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 33 and 34: - and consequences - things that do
Page 35 and 36: approach ensures that a topic or is
Page 37 and 38: Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40: A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42: The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44: problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46: In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
Page 95 and 96: time constraints, multiple versions
Page 97 and 98: they were required to examine. 173
Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
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Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
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partnerships between analysts and t
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1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
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Conclusion Never before in our peac
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Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
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Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
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against which to apply/illustrate w
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mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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• Describe what is needed to move
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Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
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Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
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Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
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Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
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Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
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Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
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Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
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__________. Building Airplanes in F
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Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
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Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
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Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
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Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
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Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
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About the Author David T. Moore is
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