Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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Class 3 – Pollyanna, Cassandra, and Marshaling Reading Assignment: The Thinker’s Toolkit: Fourteen Skills for Making Smarter Decisions in Business and in Life, Chapters 4, 6. Written Assignment: Reading summaries for each chapter. Exercises in text. Class Objectives: At the end of Class 3 you will be able to: • Discuss the pros-cons-fixes approach to critical thinking and the six-step method employed by successful analysts. • Identify the logic behind the pros-cons-fixes approach and discuss those critical thinking problems best suited to this method. • Apply the techniques of sorting, chronologies, and timelines to critical thinking and identify those critical thinking problems best suited for this approach. • Identify the two-step technique used for sorted lists, chronologies, and timelines. – 106 –
Class 4 – Causes, Squares, and Shrubs Reading Assignment: The Thinker’s Toolkit: Fourteen Skills for Making Smarter Decisions in Business and in Life, Chapters 7, 8, 9. Written Assignment: Reading summaries for each chapter. Exercises in text. Class Objectives: At the end of Class 4 you will be able to: • Discuss the purpose, logic, underlying question, evidence, concepts, and types of problems best suited for causal flow diagramming. • Identify the major factors and cause-and-effect relationships influencing causal flow diagramming. • Characterize the differences between direct and inverse relationships and their impact on causal flow diagramming. • Define a feedback loop and discuss what makes it stable or unstable. • Apply your knowledge of causal diagramming by participating in a classroom exercise. • Discuss the purpose, logic, underlying question, evidence, concepts, and types of problems best suited for scenario matrices and trees. • Define and discuss the characteristics and differences between matrices and scenario trees. • Apply your knowledge of scenario matrices by participating in a classroom exercise. • Apply your knowledge of scenario trees by participating in a classroom exercise. – 107 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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- and consequences - things that do
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approach ensures that a topic or is
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Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
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A Disposition to Think Critically I
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The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
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problem solving and structured meth
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In fact, the Soviets were able to d
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It should be noted that the U.S. In
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thwarted What can be learned to adv
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Purpose · Determine what is going
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critical thinking could moderate th
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Cuba” that led to the tasking of
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A missile-launching complex is not
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(mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
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Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
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as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
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the Soviet Union’s communist agen
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supporting forces, an escalation of
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in the hands of the West. If, as Al
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most recent failure. Critical think
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was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
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asked, as they realized they had no
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person, the analysis was faulty bec
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Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
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Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
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Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
Page 141 and 142: Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144: Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146: __________. Building Airplanes in F
Page 147 and 148: Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150: Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152: Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154: Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156: Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
Page 157 and 158: About the Author David T. Moore is
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