Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

More documents

Recommendations

Info

How does Critical Thinking Transform Transforming Intelligence Corporations In order for an institution to change, all affected personnel, from the lowest to the highest, must first recognize that change is needed and is advantageous – both corporately and personally. As retired World Bank executive Stephen Denning argues, this is difficult to accomplish. Logically sound arguments do not sway employees. Instead, employees remain convinced that what they are doing is satisfactory. 176 Further, outsiders who attempt to induce change face opposition because employees presume that external consultants are arrogant in suggesting that things are not right, and that change is needed. One way to effect change is through a “springboard story.” This approach contrasts with past conventional – and largely unsuccessful – transformation efforts that relied on fixing the systems involved and were characterized by an overabundance of buzzwords: Enhance quality. Streamline procedures. Reform and flatten the organizational structure. Analyze things in terms of grids and charts. Develop plans in which individuals are programmed to operate like so many obedient computers. Hone our interpersonal mechanics and build skill inventories. Bring to our difficulties a fix-it attitude, as though our past errors can be easily corrected with straightforward explanations. 177 176 For a discussion of Denning’s philosophy about change, see Jeff de Cagna, “Making Change Happen: Steve Denning Tells the Story of Storytelling,” Information Outlook, January 2001, 28–35, and Stephen Denning, The Springboard: How Storytelling Ignites Action in Knowledge-Era Organizations (Boston, MA: Butterworth- Heinemann, 2001). Cited hereafter as Denning, Springboard. 177 Denning, Springboard, xvii. In 23 years of Intelligence Community work, the author heard all of these phrases as slogans for various programs designed to “fix” analysis or the corporations involved. These associated corporate efforts to bring these goals about often had the opposite effect. In the process of “flattening – 74 –
As Denning points out, these strategies fail to account for the messy and chaotic reality in which real organizations live and work, especially intelligence agencies which have the charter to engage honestly with “the other,” or mission-related targets, outside of the bureaucracy in which they serve. 178 The springboard story helps employees at all levels envision what is needed for the proposed transformation. Denning asserts that it “invites them to see analogies from their own backgrounds, their own contexts, their own fields of expertise.” 179 He cautions that transformational stories are not a panacea – there are situations and circumstances in which they are not effective, such as when the change being proposed is a bad idea. 180 The key is finding the appropriate stories within the corporate culture. One way to find these stories is to examine the best practices of intelligence analysis successes where critical thinking played a role. Just recounting a success is not enough. Listeners need to be able to identify and empathize with the scenario and its actors. The effective story is “about people who have lived [a] knowledgesharing idea and how things happen in a real-life situation.” 181 For example, conducting a trial or experiment on critical thinking within the intelligence analysis process, if it leads to certifiable, actionable success, does effectively persuade. Learning from Early Adopters Once a sustained number of early adopters openly apply systematic, critical thinking to hard analytic problems, the stage is set for a “tipping point” in the spread of structured methods across the organization” at one intelligence agency, more hierarchical managerial layers were actually created! 178 Denning, Springboard, xvii. 179 Denning, Springboard, xix. 180 Denning, Springboard, xxi. 181 Denning, Springboard, 51. – 75 –
Page 2 and 3:
The National Defense Intelligence C
Page 5 and 6:
Contents Figures and Tables........
Page 7:
Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
Page 10 and 11:
- viii -
Page 12 and 13:
As one would expect, the Intelligen
Page 14 and 15:
- xii -
Page 16 and 17:
quality by looking at the products
Page 18 and 19:
Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
Page 20 and 21:
That said, clever defense lawyers o
Page 22 and 23:
Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
Page 25 and 26:
CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 27 and 28:
CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
Page 29 and 30:
Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
Page 31 and 32:
ecome better critical thinkers will
Page 33 and 34:
- and consequences - things that do
Page 35 and 36:
approach ensures that a topic or is
Page 37 and 38:
Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
Page 39 and 40:
A Disposition to Think Critically I
Page 41 and 42:
The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
Page 43 and 44:
problem solving and structured meth
Page 45 and 46:
In fact, the Soviets were able to d
Page 47 and 48: It should be noted that the U.S. In
Page 49 and 50: thwarted What can be learned to adv
Page 51 and 52: Purpose · Determine what is going
Page 53 and 54: critical thinking could moderate th
Page 55 and 56: Cuba” that led to the tasking of
Page 57 and 58: A missile-launching complex is not
Page 59 and 60: (mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
Page 61 and 62: Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
Page 95 and 96: time constraints, multiple versions
Page 97: they were required to examine. 173
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
Page 129 and 130: • Describe what is needed to move
Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
Page 141 and 142: Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144: Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146: __________. Building Airplanes in F
Page 147 and 148: Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150:
Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152:
Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154:
Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156:
Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
Page 157 and 158:
About the Author David T. Moore is
show all

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?