Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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Class Descriptions and Weekly Assignments (complete prior to each class): Class 1 – How We Don’t Think and How We Might Reading Assignment: The Thinker’s Toolkit: Fourteen Skills for Making Smarter Decisions in Business and in Life, Chapters 1–2 (Part One). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, 1–30. Critical Thinking: Concepts and Tools, entire work. Written Assignment: Reading summaries for chapters from Jones and Heuer. Exercises in text. Class Objectives: At the end of Class 1 you will be able to: • Define a bias and discuss the implications of biases in our decisions. • Identify sources of cognitive biases. • Describe the inherent dangers/benefits of biases and the difficulty of compensating for perceptual biases. • Describe the characteristics and three principles of perception. • Describe how analysts fall prey to absence-of-evidence biases. • Describe how anchoring impacts analytical decisionmaking. • Describe how a target can use assimilation biases to deceive. • Acknowledge how analysts unwittingly use confirmation bias to support early assessments. • Discuss how hindsight and reliability biases play a part in intelligence failures. • Describe how oversensitivity to consistency bias can lead to undesirable results. • Discuss how expert biases and the Pollyanna and Cassandra complexes distort our thinking. • Describe how cultural, personal, and organizational – 102 –
mindsets impact analysis. • Define mindsets, discuss how they are derived, and describe how they influence predictions. • Identify how we think. • Describe critical thinking and the standards used for evaluating our thinking. • Identify the elemental structures of thought. • Describe the differences between inferences and assumptions in intelligence analysis. – 103 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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- and consequences - things that do
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approach ensures that a topic or is
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Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
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A Disposition to Think Critically I
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The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
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problem solving and structured meth
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In fact, the Soviets were able to d
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It should be noted that the U.S. In
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thwarted What can be learned to adv
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Purpose · Determine what is going
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critical thinking could moderate th
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Cuba” that led to the tasking of
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A missile-launching complex is not
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(mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
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Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
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as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
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the Soviet Union’s communist agen
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supporting forces, an escalation of
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in the hands of the West. If, as Al
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most recent failure. Critical think
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was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
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Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
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Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113 and 114: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 115 and 116: partnerships between analysts and t
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 129 and 130: • Describe what is needed to move
Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
Page 141 and 142: Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144: Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146: __________. Building Airplanes in F
Page 147 and 148: Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150: Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152: Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154: Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156: Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
Page 157 and 158: About the Author David T. Moore is
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