Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Cooper’s Analytic
Pathology
Neglect of
Research
Neglect of
Anticipatory
Intelligence
Loss of “Keystone
Species” and
“Intellectual
Middleware”
Description
Short–term taskings prevent longer–term research;
reward structure favors current reporting, not longer
term work; stunts development of deep target
expertise.
“Information Revolution” leaves intelligence competing
with journalism and Internet for policymakers’
attention; lack of predictive intelligence against
new emerging threats ensures continuing failures to
warn.
Periodic reductions in force skew analyst demographics;
“Keystone Species” (journeymen analysts)
lacking; journeymen do bulk of professional maintenance;
essential for knowledge retention and transfer
to apprentices; maintain “intellectual Middleware”
or deep understanding of analytic domains
and processes.
Lack of Analytic Tools
and Methods of
Validation
Available and proposed tools not formally validated
for accuracy and usefulness; focus on results, not
processes, to determine success.
Hindrances of
Security Mindset
Security procedures impede multi–source analysis;
protection of sources and methods more important
than “effective exploitation and cross–fertilization;”
artificial and outdated mission distinctions
prevent collaboration.
Critical thinking combats this by enhancing the processes by
which decisions are made and by which such processes are reviewed.
This paper focuses primarily on individual experience, and of course,
intelligence corporations are made up of individuals. If a sufficient
number of intelligence professionals are thinking critically, it is likely
they will transform their corporations, if only through the sheer
attrition of non-critically thinking managers and leaders who are
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