Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

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What Does the Future Hold Looking ahead, new paradigms for analysis become necessary in light of the many changes occurring across the globe. Rapidly emerging twenty-first century issues and challenges stress both infrastructures and sensemaking enterprises. The changes needed to maintain an edge against adversaries becomes clear as one considers what it is that analysts do, and how and when, as table 7 illustrates. Gregory Treverton’s observations about the evolution of intelligence sensemaking and the organizations that comprise the national intelligence enterprise suggest that current “reform” efforts are merely the first steps in a much lager – and fundamental – transformation. A careful, considered examination of what intelligence must accomplish and how this can be best achieved may ensure that the goals Treverton identifies as necessary for the future are met – and met sooner rather than later. Here again critical thinking has much to offer. By encouraging discussion of the alternatives and their advantages and disadvantages, and by examining analogous cases, critical thinkers aid the transformation. Questioning of assumptions about the roles of intelligence, its activity, and organization will reveal which long-held beliefs need retirement. Further, technology efforts in support of analysis, such as those being developed through the efforts of the ARDA – and other – advanced technology efforts presume that analysts think critically. For instance, by focusing “analytic attention on the most critical information found within massive data,” 223 some research projects seek to uncover otherwise unknown information that indicates the potential for strategic surprise. 224 These projects seek to build 223 Critical information is that which is essential for analysts to make sense of what their targets are going to do. Often it is buried in massive amounts of “noise.” 224 Advanced Research and Development Activity, Broad Agency Announcement for the Novel Intelligence from Massive Data (NIMD) R&D Program, NMA401–02–BAA– 0004, 7 JUNE 2002, 1. – 90 –
partnerships between analysts and technology applications. 225 In one case, a research firm has developed technology that enables analysts to generate and validate novel hypotheses, distill complex systems into digestible elements, create effective narratives, and inspire creative thinking. 226 Other examples are illustrated in the adjacent text box. Follow-on research efforts such as the Collaboration and Analyst/ System Effectiveness (CASE) effort will develop these efforts further. 227 The intelligence workforce these ARDA-supported efforts presuppose is being hired and trained now. The future also holds opportunities for further developing models of reasoning in intelligence. Exactly how analogy and critical thinking interact, the roles of creative thinking, the roles of intuition, and specific strategies for bias mitigation are all areas warranting further research. Formal validation of how critical thinking improves intelligence reasoning is another research topic. Rieber and Thomason’s proposed National Institute of Analytic Methods is an obvious venue for such research. Additionally, the ARDA advanced questioning and answering research program, AQUAINT, as well as other ARDA programs dealing with predictive analysis, prior and tacit knowledge, and hypothesis generation offer other domains in which such research could occur. 228 Such research is of both intrinsic value and necessary for developing new means 225 The five areas on which the NIMD effort focused were modeling analysts and how they work; analysts’ prior and tacit knowledge; creating, representing, and tracking multiple scenarios, hypotheses, and/or strategies; massive data management and analysis; and the means by which analysts interact with technology. The author represented his agency in evaluating and mentoring the efforts of the researchers. 226 The author is a technical mentor of this firm’s work. 227 For more information, see “Collaboration and Analyst/System Effectiveness (CASE),” AFRL Directorate: IFED BAA 06–02–IFKA, 28 October 2005, URL: , last accessed 11 March 2006. 228 Advanced Research and Development Activity (ARDA), “Preliminary Solicitation Information for Advanced QUestion & Answering for INTelligence (AQUAINT),” URL: , last accessed 26 March 2006. – 91 –
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The National Defense Intelligence C
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Contents Figures and Tables........
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Figures and Tables Figure 1: A Comp
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As one would expect, the Intelligen
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quality by looking at the products
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Commentary Francis J. Hughes Profes
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That said, clever defense lawyers o
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Robert Heibel, Mercyhurst College;
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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CRITICAL THINKING AND INTELLIGENCE
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Figure 1 models analysts’ thinkin
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ecome better critical thinkers will
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- and consequences - things that do
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approach ensures that a topic or is
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Skill-Based Definitions Other appro
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A Disposition to Think Critically I
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The Role of Questions Greg Treverto
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problem solving and structured meth
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In fact, the Soviets were able to d
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It should be noted that the U.S. In
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thwarted What can be learned to adv
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Purpose · Determine what is going
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critical thinking could moderate th
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Cuba” that led to the tasking of
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A missile-launching complex is not
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(mapping), evaluate and adapt the i
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Winners and Losers: The Crisis in C
Page 63 and 64: as seen from Khrushchev’s Point o
Page 65 and 66: the Soviet Union’s communist agen
Page 67 and 68: supporting forces, an escalation of
Page 69 and 70: in the hands of the West. If, as Al
Page 71 and 72: most recent failure. Critical think
Page 73 and 74: was not enough. 117 Biases and mind
Page 75 and 76: asked, as they realized they had no
Page 77 and 78: person, the analysis was faulty bec
Page 79 and 80: undermines or supports the particul
Page 81 and 82: to meet short deadlines. However, a
Page 83 and 84: the FBI investigated a pond in west
Page 85 and 86: How can Analysts be Taught to Think
Page 87 and 88: young analysts were unable to do so
Page 89 and 90: it out on their own, encouraged by
Page 91 and 92: instructional models offer compleme
Page 93 and 94: Another means of critical thinking
Page 95 and 96: time constraints, multiple versions
Page 97 and 98: they were required to examine. 173
Page 99 and 100: As Denning points out, these strate
Page 101 and 102: of thinking. For example, two video
Page 103 and 104: intelligence agencies. 191 This was
Page 105 and 106: thinking, however, by providing str
Page 107 and 108: Cooper’s Analytic Pathology Negle
Page 109 and 110: substantially better judgments abou
Page 111 and 112: item limit is easily extended: peop
Page 113: Finally, it may be a fallacy that c
Page 117 and 118: 1990s and 2000s Emergence of comple
Page 119 and 120: Conclusion Never before in our peac
Page 121 and 122: Appendix NSA’s Critical Thinking
Page 123 and 124: Administration: Enrollment: Up to 2
Page 125 and 126: against which to apply/illustrate w
Page 127 and 128: mindsets impact analysis. • Defin
Page 129 and 130: • Describe what is needed to move
Page 131 and 132: Class 4 - Causes, Squares, and Shru
Page 133 and 134: Class 6 - Testing the Devil’s and
Page 135 and 136: Class 8 - And Now for Something Com
Page 137 and 138: Class 10 - Final Project Presentati
Page 139 and 140: Final Project Evaluation Worksheet
Page 141 and 142: Bibliography Ackerman, Robert K.
Page 143 and 144: Cheikes, Brant A., Mark J. Brown, P
Page 145 and 146: __________. Building Airplanes in F
Page 147 and 148: Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surp
Page 149 and 150: Kerbel, Josh. “Thinking Straight:
Page 151 and 152: Miller, Judith. “A Battle of Word
Page 153 and 154: Paul, Richard W., Linda Elder, and
Page 155 and 156: Stefik, Mark, and Barbara Stefik. B
Page 157 and 158: About the Author David T. Moore is
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