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model may be most appropriate. Finally, decision support<br />
models should be amenable to modification and<br />
revision <strong>of</strong> the data components, the specified relationships<br />
within the model, and the development alternatives<br />
or scenarios considered by the model. Again, it is<br />
imperative that the needs <strong>of</strong> the users be kept in mind. A<br />
model that uses data that are no longer valid for a particular<br />
locale, whose underlying ecological economic relationships<br />
are no longer accurate, or allows for no further<br />
modification or alteration <strong>of</strong> the specified development<br />
alternatives or scenarios, will prove to be <strong>of</strong> little use in<br />
the long run.<br />
2. RESULTS OF THE MODELLING PROJECTS<br />
In 1995, work commenced under World Bank Research<br />
Committee funding on two streams <strong>of</strong> research concerning<br />
coral reefs in the developing tropics: i) cost-effectiveness<br />
modelling <strong>of</strong> management interventions (i.e., a<br />
question <strong>of</strong> the ‘supply’ <strong>of</strong> biodiversity as an economic<br />
asset); and, ii) marine system valuation (i.e., a question<br />
<strong>of</strong> the ‘demand’ for biodiversity). Essentially, the leastcost<br />
modelling sought to identify the cost curve for<br />
interventions to improve coral reef conditions, where<br />
the effects <strong>of</strong> various policy interventions and economic<br />
activities are linked to overall coral reef health and costs<br />
associated with making improvements (Huber et al.<br />
1994; Meesters 1995; Meesters et al. 1995; Ridgley et al.<br />
1995; Rijsberman 1995; Rijsberman et al. 1995; Westmacott<br />
et al. 1995; Brown et al. 1996; Huber et al.<br />
1996; Meesters & Westmacott 1996; Meesters et al.<br />
1996; Ridgley & Dollar 1996; Rijsberman & Westmacott<br />
1996; Westmacott 1996; Westmacott & Rijsberman<br />
1997; Huber & Jameson 1998a; Meesters et al.<br />
1998; Ruitenbeek et al. 1999a, 1999b). The marine<br />
system valuation model sought to identify the benefits<br />
that can be realised from sustaining or improving coral<br />
reef conditions (Huber and Ruitenbeek 1997; Gustavson<br />
1998; Putterman 1998; Spash et al. 1998; Ruitenbeek<br />
& Cartier 1999). The results <strong>of</strong> the research efforts<br />
can be found in Gustavson et al. (2000).<br />
The broad objective <strong>of</strong> the research was to assist policy-makers<br />
in the management and protection <strong>of</strong> coral<br />
reefs (Huber et al. 1994; Huber & Ruitenbeek 1997).<br />
The establishment <strong>of</strong> a cost-benefit methodology appropriate<br />
for use on coral reef systems in the developing<br />
tropics, and on marine systems in general, will assist in<br />
identifying appropriate institutional and policy interventions<br />
to help realise economically efficient uses <strong>of</strong><br />
coral reefs while considering the impacts on and role <strong>of</strong><br />
the supporting ecosystem. Such a cost-benefit analysis<br />
(CBA) ‘package’ is represented by the integration <strong>of</strong> the<br />
cost-effectiveness and valuation models (Ruitenbeek &<br />
Cartier 1999). Three case study sites were selected on<br />
which to test the methodologies:<br />
i) Curaçao, the Netherland Antilles;<br />
ii) the Republic <strong>of</strong> the Maldives; and,<br />
iii) Montego Bay, Jamaica.<br />
2.1 <strong>Coral</strong>-Curaçao<br />
Rijsberman & Westmacott (1996, see also Meesters<br />
1995; Rijsberman et al. 1995; Westmacott et al. 1995;<br />
Meesters et al. 1996) developed a cost-effectiveness analysis<br />
model for coral reef management and protection for<br />
the south coast <strong>of</strong> Curaçao. The decision support model<br />
was developed to facilitate communication among<br />
stakeholders concerning development directions and environmental<br />
management strategies; the analysis <strong>of</strong> impacts<br />
on coral reef health <strong>of</strong> planned developments<br />
through the discharge <strong>of</strong> wastewater and sediment,<br />
thereby integrating land-use, tourism and conservation<br />
planning; and, the analysis <strong>of</strong> the cost-effectiveness <strong>of</strong><br />
management interventions designed to maintain coral<br />
reef health. The model utilises a structured computer<br />
interface.<br />
Results <strong>of</strong> three modelling scenarios (a reference status<br />
quo development scenario and two alternative<br />
growth scenarios) indicate that Curaçao is likely to experience<br />
significant declines in coral reef health and abundance<br />
over the next 10 years. However, the modelling<br />
also indicates that interventions involving environmental<br />
protection strategies can halt this trend and, in some<br />
case, lead to the recovery <strong>of</strong> reefs above the current state<br />
<strong>of</strong> health. The implementation <strong>of</strong> individual measures<br />
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT MODELLING FOR THE INTEGRATED COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT OF CORAL REEFS<br />
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