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210TABLE 7.11. Number of Additional Deaths in Belarus, Ukraine, and the European Part of Russia,1990–2004, that Can Be Attributed to the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Khudoley et al., 2006)Region/CountryEuropean Russia Belarus Ukraine TotalPopulation living in highly contaminated territories 1,789,000 1,571,000 2,290,000 5,650,000Number of additional deaths 67,000 59,000 86,000 212,000The assumptions concerning nonmalignantradiation risks differ even more than forradiation-induced cancers. Risk projectionsbased on observed increases in the general mortalityare more meaningful, and they are likelyto be more realistic than calculations that onlyuse individual and/or collective doses togetherwith risk factors for fatal cancers.Based on data presented in Section 7.6, it ispossible to estimate the total death toll from theChernobyl catastrophe:• When we apply the additional mortalityof 34 extra deaths per 1,000 populationwithin 15 years (1990–2004), whichwas derived above, to the cohort of liquidatorsnot living in contaminated zones(400,000), to the evacuees and to peoplewho moved away from contaminated areas(350,000), then we expect another 25,500deaths in this period. The overall numberof Chernobyl-related deaths up until 2004in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia was estimatedto be 237,500.• Assuming that 10 million people in Europe,outside the Former Soviet Union,live in territories with a Cs-137 groundcontamination higher than 40 kBq/m 2(>1.08 Ci/km 2 ) and that the mortality riskis only half that determined in the Chernobylregion, that is, 17 deaths per 1,000inhabitants (better food and better medicaland socioeconomic situations), up until2004, we can expect an additional 170,000deaths in Europe outside the Former SovietUnion owing to Chernobyl.• Let us further assume that for the other150 million Europeans living in territorieswith a Cs-137 ground contamination below40 kBq/m 2 (see Chapter 1 for details)the additional mortality will be 10-foldless (i.e., 1.7 deaths per 1,000 in 1990–2004). Then we can expect 150,000 ×1.7 or 255,000 more deaths in the rest ofEurope.• Assuming that 20% of the radionuclidesreleased from the Chernobyl reactor weredeposited outside Europe (see Chapter1) and that the exposed population was190 million, with a risk factor of 1.7 per1,000 as before, we could have expectedan additional 323,000 cancer deaths outsideEurope until 2004.Thus the overall mortality for the periodfrom April 1986 to the end of 2004 fromthe Chernobyl catastrophe was estimated at985,000 additional deaths. This estimate of thenumber of additional deaths is similar to thoseof Gofman (1994a) and Bertell (2006). A projectionfor a much longer period—for many futuregenerations—is very difficult. Some counterdirectedaspects of such prognoses are asfollows:• Given the half-life of the two main radionuclides(Cs-137 and Sr-90) of approximately30 years each, the radionuclideload in the contaminated territories willdecrease about 50% for each human generation.The concentrations of Pu, Cl-36,and Tc-99 will remain practically the samevirtually forever (half-lives consequentlymore than 20,000 and 200,000 years), andthe concentration of Am-241, which is adecay product of Pu-241, will increase overseveral generations.