Unpacking the Mystery of Mediation in African Peace ... - Swisspeace

Unpacking the Mystery of Mediation in African Peace Processes
Background of the Conflict
Chronology
The violence that gripped Kenya during the first
months of 2008 was sparked by the announcement
of the results of the presidential election,
which was widely regarded as having been severely
manipulated, on 30 December 2007. The
incumbent president, Mwai Kibaki, who leads the
Party of National Unity (PNU), was announced
to have won the election over Raila Odinga, the
candidate of the opposition Orange Democratic
Movement (ODM). The ensuing violence between
supporters of the opposing parties went on
for several weeks and caused over 1,000 deaths
and displaced 300,000 persons. 111
In a report entitled “Countdown to deception: 30
hours that destroyed Kenya”, a group of election
observers describe the severe manipulations at the
tallying centre in Nairobi’s Kenyatta International
Conference Centre: For some constituencies,
a turnout of over 100 per cent was claimed,
and the results accepted. From other constituencies,
results were announced without any documentation.
Observers even witnessed results being
made up regardless of the reports from certain
constituencies. It was also reported that officers in
charge of bringing the results to Nairobi had been
threatened. A few hours before the announcement
of the final results, all party agents and observers
were evicted from the building. 112 Within
less than an hour of the public announcement of
the election results, Mwai Kibaki was sworn in as
president.
Upon the public announcement of the election
results, three forms of violence broke out at once.
Firstly, there were spontaneous and disorganized
protests, which in some cases turned into violence
against persons and property. Secondly, organized
militias set out to attack supporters of the opposite
party. And thirdly, cases were reported in
which the Kenyan police forces reacted with disproportionate
violence to the protests. 113 The
111 International Crisis Group: “Kenya in Crisis” (2008), p. 1
(http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5316&l=1).
112 Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice: “Countdown to deception:
30 hours that destroyed Kenya” (21 January 2008)
(http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=17016).
113 Ibid., p. 1.
48
supporters of the two parties are divided along
ethnic lines, and the violence had strong ethnopolitical
features. 114 The slums of Nairobi were affected
as well as towns on the countryside. Luo
mobs, enraged by the defeat of their candidate,
attacked Kikuyu settlements. This in turn sparked
revenge attacks by Kikuyu youths against non-
Kikuyus. The officially outlawed Kikuyu
Mungiki sect killed dozens of Luos and Luhyas
within the first days of the violence. The scene of
the most severe violence was the Rift Valley region.
Organized Kalenjin militias attacked Kikuyu
settlements, and again, there were deadly
counterattacks by Kikuyus against rival ethnic
groups. 115
Causes of the Conflict
The trigger of the violence was the disputed
presidential election and the quest for political
power of political parties. Since the supporters of
the two parties to the election are largely divided
along ethnic lines, ethnicity did play a major role
in the conflict. 116 The ethnic divisions in Kenya
are manifest in the demographic make-up of political
constituencies. The constituencies that
support the PNU are found in the Central and
Eastern Provinces as well as the Nairobi Area, the
Coast Province, and the Rift Valley and are
dominated by the Kikuyu, Embu, and Meru ethnic
groups. ODM’s constituencies are located in
the very west of the country in the smaller Western
and Nyanza Provinces on the shores of Lake
Victoria, as well as parts of the Rift Valley, and
their population largely consists of Luo, Luhya,
and Kalenjin ethnicity. Although figures vary, the
Kikuyu are the largest ethnic group with about 20
per cent of the population, followed by the Luo
with roughly 14 per cent and Kalenjin with about
12 per cent.
One important root cause of the conflict is insecurity
in the case of Kenya’s land and property
rights. According to Senior Property Rights and
Land Tenure Specialist Gregory Myers at the US
Agency for International Development, the Kenyan
government has for a long time annexed large
114 Gruppe Friedensentwicklung FriEnt: “Krise in Kenia – Was
haben wir übersehen und wie geht es weiter?” in: FriEnt Impulse,
04 / 2008 (2008).
115 International Crisis Group (2008): op. cit., pp. 9–16.
116 Ibid., p. 1.