Unpacking the Mystery of Mediation in African Peace ... - Swisspeace

North-Mali and North-Niger, Libya Engagement
mated. On the downside of the initiative, Libya’s
role is far from clearly defined: It acts as a mediator,
but also as an incendiarist in the conflict. It
appears as if Libya’s strategic goal is to guarantee
its influence in the region not only with financial
support, but also through its ability to stabilize
and de-stabilize the region’s states. Rather than
engaging in genuine mediation efforts, Gaddafi
essentially used his role as a ‘mediator’ to project
his military and political power and to extend his
influence in the region. The initiative was thus a
chance for him to solve the regional crisis and
gain a high diplomatic profile.
Agreement
Under the ceasefire agreement signed in Tripoli
on 27 March 2008, the government’s army
would partly withdraw from the northern region,
while the rebels agreed to release more than 30
captured government soldiers. This would create
a ‘climate of appeasement’ and ‘open the way for
a dialogue to forge a final settlement’, both sides
said in a joint statement after the peace talks. 161
No precise timetable was given. Simultaneously,
Libya confirmed that it was considering a financial
aid package from the Gaddafi Charity Foundation
for the impoverished regions of Mali and
Niger.
Context
Clearly, the uncontained conflict in Niger has
had a spill-over effect to Mali. A small Malian
Tuareg faction, with little support from the rest
of the Tuareg community, started a rebellion that
has, in the context of the uncontained conflict escalation
in Niger, widespread poverty, and weak
institutions, currently placed Mali on the brink of
a civil war. The Malian government’s efforts to
resolve the Tuareg issue in a peaceful manner
bodes well for future stability, but due to the general
instable situation in Mali and the Malian Tuaregs’
close ties with the Nigerien Tuaregs, the
state is very vulnerable to contagion processes and
internal unrest.
161 BBC News: “Mali, rebels agree truce after bloody air strike” (3
April 2008), (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL
03375027).
Outlook
Secessionist claims: How are transnational ethnic
groups with secessionist demands to be dealt
with, particularly in countries with massive economic
needs, crippled judicial systems, and unstable
neighbors on their borders that could lead
to renewed regional conflicts?
Poverty and marginalization: It appears that peace
can only be sustainable if poverty, marginalization,
and underdevelopment are seriously dealt
with by the governments.
State stability: There is a high risk of military
coups in both Mali and Niger, as the state authority
is relatively weak and no longer has a clear
monopoly of violence within its borders. In combination
with escalating violence and desertion
from the countries’ armies, the pronounced dissatisfaction
and frustration in the higher echelons
of the military means that a mutiny directed towards
the states is far from unlikely.
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