Unpacking the Mystery of Mediation in African Peace ... - Swisspeace

Northern Uganda, Juba Negotiations
Background of the Conflict
Root Causes
The conflict in Northern Uganda arose in the
context of competition for political and economic
resources between different regional and ethnic
groups in Uganda, the roots of which were sown
during the British colonial era. While the South
was favored economically, Northern Ugandans,
in particular the Acholi, made up most of the recruits
for the army. After Uganda gained independence
in 1962, the Acholi military establishment
supported the demagogic rules of Milton
Obote and later of Tito Okello. When Yoweri
Museveni’s National Resistance Movement
usurped power in 1986, “the Acholi were ousted
from power in all domains, and many a group in
Uganda was in the mood for settling scores.” 162 In
subsequent years, as Museveni consolidated his
reign and modernized the country, the Acholi
were kept on the margins of society and largely
denied access to political and economic resources.
Chronology
Against the background of Acholi marginalization,
insurgent groups emerged in Northern
Uganda in the late 1980s including a group led
by Joseph Kony that was later to become the
LRA. In the 1990s, the conflict in Northern
Uganda was exacerbated as the LRA became an
actor in the broader regional conflict between
Uganda and Sudan. In retaliation for Museveni’s
support of the SPLM, the Sudanese government
in Khartoum began financing and arming the
LRA as a proxy force. At the same time, the LRA
dissociated itself from the Acholi and increasingly
perpetuated violence against the very community
it claimed to defend. 163 The LRA committed unspeakable
atrocities, most infamously the abduction
and forced recruitment of children as soldiers.
Local communities also suffered from human
rights abuses that the Ugandan army, the
Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), committed
in various counter-insurgency operations.
162 Doom, Ruddy and Vlassenroot, Koen: “Kony’s Message: A
New Koine? The LRA in Northern Uganda”, in: African Affairs,
no. 390 (1999), p. 10.
163 Vinci, Anthony: “Existential Motivations in the Lord’s Resistance
Army’s Continuing Conflict”, in: Studies in Conflict &
Terrorism, vol. 30, no. 4 (2007).
Thus, the 30-year war in Northern Uganda has
caused tens of thousands of deaths and displaced
of hundreds of thousands of refugees. Despite
significant international pressure and multiple
UPDF campaigns, the LRA has proved resistant
to military defeat.
Previous Negotiations, Entry
Points and Pre-Negotiations
Before the Juba talks, there were several attempts
at making peace between the LRA and the GoU,
the most notable of which was led by Betty
Bigombe in the 1990s. 164 However, none of these
initiatives succeeded, most importantly because
the parties remained convinced that they could
achieve their aims better on the battle field than
at the negotiation table. The situation changed in
2006, making the Juba talks the most promising
attempt at ending the conflict in Northern
Uganda so far. The reasons for this are that (a)
the context has evolved and that (b) a powerful
and highly committed mediator materialized in
the form of Riek Machar.
Changing context
Three developments changed the context of the
conflict in Northern Uganda after the turn of the
millennium and made its peaceful resolution possible:
first, and most importantly, Khartoum discontinued
its support for the LRA after the conclusion
of the CPA in January 2005. Second, in
2005, the ICC indicted five LRA leaders, including
Joseph Kony, without, however, being able to
apprehend them. Third, Museveni sought to improve
his image, which was affected by allegations
of corruption and electoral malpractice as well as
his inability to address the humanitarian crisis in
the north. 165 These developments changed the incentive
structures of the parties in such a way that
they deemed a negotiated solution to the conflict
in Northern Uganda more desirable than before
and were thus ready to seriously engage in peace
talks in Juba.
164 See Boustany, Nora: “The Woman Behind Uganda’s Peace
Hopes”, in: The Washington Post (11 July 2007), p. A09.
165 International Crisis Group (ICG), “Peace in Northern
Uganda?”, Africa Briefing no. 41 (13 September 2006), p. 11,
(http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4374).
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