business plan for 2004 - EDP

context. A growth of very close to 3.0% is forecast for
2004, while the Euro Area is still endeavouring to
reverse the trend of slow economic growth seen during
the past two years.
Together with the dynamism of the Spanish economy,
prices have risen at a rate greater than that of the Euro
Area, slightly more than 3.0%. This is not likely to
change significantly in 2004, even though the downward
tendency will continue. The acceleration of growth of
the Spanish economy would not seem, however, to be
sufficient to reduce unemployment. Despite the fact that
the unemployment rate increased in the Euro Area,
Spain continues to have an unemployment rate far
higher than the European average, more than 11.0%. A
slight decline of the unemployment rate is expected for
2004 , though a figure of less than 11.0% will be difficult
to achieve.
>> 3 Brazilian Economy
During 2001 and 2002 Brazil experienced a series of
events that had a negative effect on its economy,
particularly the international surroundings, heightened
by the troubled situation in several of the major
economies of Latin America. Internally, the Brazilian
economy was significantly affected by energy rationing
and by the uncertainty surrounding the results of the
presidential elections and the consequent economic
policies.
The end to most of the troublesome factors and signs of
the adoption of an economic policy based on stability
have led to more optimistic expectations surrounding
the growth of the economy in 2004, at about 3.0%,
though growth in 2003 will have been no more than
1.5%, similar to the figures seen in 2001 and 2002. Price
increases in 2003 stood at about 15%, substantially
higher than the figure of no more than 8.5% in 2002.
Inflation
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03
As a result of the end to the instability seen during 2001
and 2002 and of the positive expectations for the future,
the real recovered slightly in 2003 from the sharp
depreciation against the dollar and the Euro in 2002.
Influenced by the appreciation of the European currency,
the performance of the real against the dollar was better,
and this was particularly important given the greater
relevance of the dollar to the Brazilian economy.
Euro Exchange Rates
6.8%
8.4%
4.4% 3.7%
2.8%
2.3%
BRL Currency EUR Currency
3.6%
2.3%
15.0%
3.3%
3.2%
2.1%
2001 2002 2003
Portugal Spain Euro Area Brazil