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Considering how we do meta-analysis, there are two kinds of null hypothesis. There isa null hypothesis that is common within medical meta-analysis literature and then thereis a null hypothesis that hasn’t really been well recognized in the ecological literature.The main difference is whether or not you assume that the data you are looking at areunderlain by one basic response or multiple responses. In medical literature you basicallystudy the effect of some chemical on humans and it’s the same chemical and basicallythe same protocols, therefore you expect that all of the studies are measuring the samethings. Everybody is trying to measure one response, which is either positive or negative,and as a consequence—which is a key assumption within meta-analysis—we say that ifstudy one shows evidence for a significant positive effect and study two shows evidencesuggestive of a significant negative effect then, combined, the two studies show thatthere was no significant effect because it can’t be both positive and negative at the sametime. Technically, the null hypothesis is that if there is one real response then the dataand evidence are distributed in a standard normal distribution around the real responsevalue, whatever that real response value is. If there are many responses, the problem isdifferent. The real responses can be positive and negative, and with ecological data oftenthis is the case because in ecology we rarely replicate the exact same experiment. Evenif we are looking at the same natural enemy with the same toxin, people do the experimentin different ways, with different toxin concentrations, for example. They’ll look atdifferent responses and will measure responses differently, so you can’t assume that theyare measuring one thing. You are actually measuring many different things. But we stillcombine all the data. Where study one finds a significant positive effect and study twofinds a significant negative effect then the final conclusion from this approach is that thereis a mixture of significant effects—a very different conclusion to come to. If there aremultiple real response values and all of them are zero, in other words all of them are noeffects, then all of evidence will be distributed as standard normal around zero. It providesa nice prediction. Significantly, we cannot conclude that if it’s not standard around zerothen there are multiple real responses because that is part of the assumption; we haveto conclude that there are some non-zero effects. This is a way of determining whethereffects are hidden within data.GM-Bt CropsWe pulled together laboratory data on the effects of Bt toxins on natural enemies of insectpests. We looked both at direct and indirect effects; we found fifty-five studies with273 responses measured. Figure 2 shows the fraction of observations plotted against thedegree of effect on predators and parasites, with a standard normal distribution showingthe zero-effects prediction. There was a slight skewing towards a negative effect, but itturned out to be non-significant; we can’t say that Bt crops had significantly more negativeeffects than positive effects, but we can say that the Bt crops had both negative andpositive effects. We don’t know what those positive and negative effects were, nor do weknow how big they were, but, again, the main conclusion was the presence of non-zeroeffects. We broke the data down for the following finer analyses:Andow91
• Separate common species• Separate toxin types• Separate direct and indirect effects• Separate response types (survival, development, growh, reproduction, behavior,enzyme activity)• Controls for non-independence among response types.Figure 2. Bt toxins: non-zero direct effects (Lövei et al., 2009)Figure 3 shows that 70% of sixty-six comparisons had p values of
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2011National Agricultural Biotechno
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NABC Report 23Food Security: The In
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AcknowledgmentsNABC’s twenty-thir
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Participants in the Student Voice a
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123 Preparing for Emerging and Unkn
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Food Security: The Intersection of
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These interconnected threads demand
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In the developed world, it will req
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On the other hand, his definition o
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Plenary Session 4. Emerging Biotech
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12 Food Security: The Intersection
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The participants’ responses did n
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they are safe. Cultural barriers ca
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• Hydrological mapping, as in Min
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• Food security is a multidiscipl
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awareness beyond anything that advo
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• Some research results indicate
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change, reduce or remove GHG emissi
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perspectives and priorities differ
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Water• Withdrawals from the Color
Page 51 and 52: Efficient Use of Resources• We ne
Page 53 and 54: • Foley is working with Google to
Page 55 and 56: drinking water, stormwater, agricul
Page 57 and 58: Table 1A. Issues, strategies and de
Page 59 and 60: The Framework in Summary—A Ten- a
Page 61 and 62: If funded, Research Implementation
Page 63 and 64: If funded, Research Implementation
Page 65 and 66: to be initiated in the first five y
Page 67 and 68: Deborah Swackhamer is professor and
Page 69 and 70: These under-nutrition woes are not
Page 71 and 72: gies. Agricultural sustainability r
Page 73 and 74: Investment in TechnologyImproved pe
Page 75 and 76: Last November, the Forum announced
Page 77 and 78: Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable
Page 79 and 80: Food and Agriculture Organization (
Page 81 and 82: 70 Food Security: The Intersection
Page 83 and 84: Richard Isaacson (University of Min
Page 85 and 86: possibility of cross-pollination th
Page 87 and 88: in part to companies like Cargill w
Page 89 and 90: Ralph Hardy (National Agricultural
Page 91 and 92: and the impacts those things have o
Page 95 and 96: Analyses of multiple de-greening ci
Page 97 and 98: June Medford, a professor of biolog
Page 99 and 100: Genetically Modified CropsIt is cle
Page 101: the toxin levels are higher than wo
Page 105 and 106: We have a similar situation in the
Page 107 and 108: ReferencesLövei GL et al. (2009) T
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1. Canada’s food-safety sy
Page 111 and 112: However, significant challenges rem
Page 113 and 114: confirmed cases in seven provinces,
Page 117 and 118: and from the IIASA Strategic Plan 2
Page 119 and 120: provided software support. We also
Page 121 and 122: Figure 4. Biological agents (classi
Page 125 and 126: Detlof von Winterfeldt is the direc
Page 127 and 128: Medford: For things like explosives
Page 129 and 130: Robert Buchanan (University of Mary
Page 131 and 132: Ishimaru: In particular with wheat,
Page 133 and 134: Duplessis: In terms of microfluidic
Page 137 and 138: Emergence/Re-EmergenceRegarding eme
Page 139 and 140: • Anticipate and prevent the emer
Page 141 and 142: AcuteWith a new emergence, the need
Page 143 and 144: Assessing Immune StatusDuring an ou
Page 145 and 146: Table 1. Recent zoonotic agents ide
Page 147 and 148: Figure 2. The impact of culling she
Page 149 and 150: ecognized as a new disease among ca
Page 151 and 152: The West Nile virus is another dram
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deer in an attempt to limit the tra
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disease centers for training, resea
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Lanciotti RS et al. (1999) Origin o
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Plant diseases still affect human h
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Climate ChangeThe predicted transit
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In addition to the NPDRS and the NP
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arely have a realistic understandin
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National Research Council (NRC) (20
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our universities we can increase aw
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evidence and no microbiologic evide
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food-preservation technologies and
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concern, particular products of con
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PreventionMuch can and should be do
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Figure 3. Selected recent multi-sta
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Figure 6. PulseNet electronic commu
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Figure 10. All Salmonella Typhimuri
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Figure 13. Listeriosis in the Unite
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Figure 15. Case definitions for clu
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Figure 18. The surveillance process
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Figure 20. Etiology of acute gastro
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I will discuss emerging intentional
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low-level contamination is on-going
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Sometimes these supply chains fall
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Clearly, the food system is globall
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Figure 13. 2010 Cocoa and cocoa-pre
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damage on those who profit from the
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target population. In their lives,
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it before it reaches the consumer.
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Shaun Kennedy is director of the Na
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ing replacements for cream, for exa
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safety system in reality by guarant
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Figure 2 shows the types of identif
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on better standards for Chinese sta
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Figure 6. Skim-milk-powder project:
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Jeffrey C. Moore is a scientific li
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John Besser: I was a little mystifi
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forensic purposes, as used with OJ
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my farmer friends thought I was cra
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Minnesota’s HeritageAs to why som
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in reality, legislation alone won
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The other aspect of this challenge
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private industry, enhancing the pro
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But it does seem that the United St
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Cathie Woteki is under secretary fo
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We offer the following comments and
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Ehlke, NancyUniversity of Minnesota
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Lumor, StephenUniversity of Minneso
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National Agricultural Biotechnology
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