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Ishimaru: But are there costs associated with the development of these technologies?Medford: Our technology will be very inexpensive. I actually tried to fill out a DefenseDepartment form, and I came down to pennies and it didn’t fit onto the form. Theywere asking cost per unit.von Winterfeldt: And you had these wonderful co-benefits.Medford: But it does bring up the huge complexity of where do you guys draw the lineof what is risk? If we can detect compounds everywhere inexpensively, where do youdraw the line? How much contamination can we tolerate? That’s not for me to do. I’mthe scientist. You guys are the publicists.Ishimaru: Along that line, though, some of the mandates that have come to DHS haveaffected scientists in terms of their ability to do research. In particular, the select-agentlist has affected us quite a bit. Dr. von Winterfeldt, I noted from your comments aboutwhen you did a risk analysis of different agents—which are reported to have a higherrisk associated with them—is that kind of information then going to inform decisionsabout things like select agents?von Winterfeldt: I would think so. Certainly in my discussions at the time with the Departmentof Homeland Security officials—at a pretty high level—they were interested inhaving more work done on the high-threat, high-consequence spectrum. And so, in thatsense, yes, I think it was leading to decisions in that area. And certainly in the nucleararea, we are investing a huge amount of money compared to biological or chemical. Thenuclear defense system has a budget of $300 million a year just on that one issue. Again,risk analysis isn’t easy with this business, so they actually established a fairly sizable groupwithin the Department because so much of this is secret work that deals exclusively withrisk analysis and risk management, and that group’s intention is to inform the decisionmakersinside the DHS to make better risk-informed decisions.Francisco Diez-Gonzalez (University of Minnesota): A question for David. You talkedabout our need to incorporate cultural factors in risk-assessment, and I’m wonderingwhether—in the case of genetically modified wheat—have cultural factors over-riddeneverything else? Varieties of GM wheat have been developed, but nobody is growing itas far as I know.Andow: With GM wheat, there are economic issues as well as cultural issues. Perceptionsof risks and benefits vary around the world. High-quality durum wheat is produced here,and sold where the best price is obtained. Those buyers may see few benefits and significantproblems from, say, herbicide-tolerant wheat. So, their economic calculus will influencewhat they buy which will then have effects throughout the supply chain.Ishimaru119
Ishimaru: In particular with wheat, an important global crop, that’s a decision that isbased on the particular nation’s ability to feed itself, it’s food security. Risks associatedwith GM wheat will probably outweigh other considerations simply because the crop isneeded for basic food.Andow: In some cases that will apply. Focusing on GM varieties in the Red River Valley,which produces high-quality durum wheats, may be inappropriate because of marketingissues.Koel Ghosh (National Center for Food Protection and Defense): I want to visit the questionof expert edification in risk assessment. Because answers given by experts often informrisk assessment, how do you go about managing—or what would be the best practicesfor—expert solicitation? And I have a secondary question for the whole panel. Whenyou do risk assessment within an area—say ecological or terrorism—different attributeswill define benefits and costs. When you combine these systems and are examining riskassessment as a whole—especially when you are considering sustainability within riskassessment—what would be the common denominator for leveling out the differencesbetween the systems?von Winterfeldt: There are standards for getting probability decisions from experts—protocols,tools—that have slight variations, but they pretty much are all similar in the sensethat they consist of a conscious selection of the experts, not just willy-nilly people off thestreet, usually by set criteria of both expertise and diversity of opinion; it’s important tohave diversity in the pool of experts. That’s one. The second one is that training is requiredbecause substantive experts typically are used to expressing their opinions in probabilities.So that takes some work. The third one is that it shouldn’t just be “ask a question, getan answer.” It should be a dialogue where the answer is documented with references tosource information to support the argument. When I build a probability distribution,I typically have at least three points with well documented reasons. And then the thirdaspect is how you deal with multiple experts, and that is where you have some diversityof approaches. You can either do a consensus approach or you do a Delphi or whatever tobring them together, but, in the end, you have to combine them. What we have learnedin those processes is that the disagreement among the experts is often huge and the argumentsoften come from basic assumptions that they make. It’s not about small variationsin probabilities. It’s important to document that as well. On common metrics—yes thereare always many attributes that you have to consider. Cost is one, health is another one,cultural impact values is another, and ecosystem impact is another. I, actually, prefer notto roll them into one, but to keep them apart and do the analysis. So, for example, in ourvery simple example of milk we had morbidity, mortality, indirect and direct economics,and, of course, cost of intervention. We kept them apart; we didn’t roll them up. It’suseful to keep them apart for as long as you can.Andow: In the environmental area, we like to think that we can get to a single metric atsome point, but actually we don’t achieve that often. A lot of the risk-assessment meth-120 Food Security: The Intersection of Sustainability, Safety and Defense
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2011National Agricultural Biotechno
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NABC Report 23Food Security: The In
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AcknowledgmentsNABC’s twenty-thir
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Participants in the Student Voice a
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123 Preparing for Emerging and Unkn
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Food Security: The Intersection of
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These interconnected threads demand
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In the developed world, it will req
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On the other hand, his definition o
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Plenary Session 4. Emerging Biotech
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12 Food Security: The Intersection
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The participants’ responses did n
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they are safe. Cultural barriers ca
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• Hydrological mapping, as in Min
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• Food security is a multidiscipl
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awareness beyond anything that advo
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• Some research results indicate
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change, reduce or remove GHG emissi
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perspectives and priorities differ
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Water• Withdrawals from the Color
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Efficient Use of Resources• We ne
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• Foley is working with Google to
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drinking water, stormwater, agricul
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Table 1A. Issues, strategies and de
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The Framework in Summary—A Ten- a
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If funded, Research Implementation
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If funded, Research Implementation
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to be initiated in the first five y
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Deborah Swackhamer is professor and
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These under-nutrition woes are not
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gies. Agricultural sustainability r
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Investment in TechnologyImproved pe
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Last November, the Forum announced
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Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable
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Page 83 and 84: Richard Isaacson (University of Min
Page 85 and 86: possibility of cross-pollination th
Page 87 and 88: in part to companies like Cargill w
Page 89 and 90: Ralph Hardy (National Agricultural
Page 91 and 92: and the impacts those things have o
Page 95 and 96: Analyses of multiple de-greening ci
Page 97 and 98: June Medford, a professor of biolog
Page 99 and 100: Genetically Modified CropsIt is cle
Page 101 and 102: the toxin levels are higher than wo
Page 103 and 104: • Separate common species• Sepa
Page 105 and 106: We have a similar situation in the
Page 107 and 108: ReferencesLövei GL et al. (2009) T
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1. Canada’s food-safety sy
Page 111 and 112: However, significant challenges rem
Page 113 and 114: confirmed cases in seven provinces,
Page 117 and 118: and from the IIASA Strategic Plan 2
Page 119 and 120: provided software support. We also
Page 121 and 122: Figure 4. Biological agents (classi
Page 125 and 126: Detlof von Winterfeldt is the direc
Page 127 and 128: Medford: For things like explosives
Page 129: Robert Buchanan (University of Mary
Page 133 and 134: Duplessis: In terms of microfluidic
Page 137 and 138: Emergence/Re-EmergenceRegarding eme
Page 139 and 140: • Anticipate and prevent the emer
Page 141 and 142: AcuteWith a new emergence, the need
Page 143 and 144: Assessing Immune StatusDuring an ou
Page 145 and 146: Table 1. Recent zoonotic agents ide
Page 147 and 148: Figure 2. The impact of culling she
Page 149 and 150: ecognized as a new disease among ca
Page 151 and 152: The West Nile virus is another dram
Page 153 and 154: deer in an attempt to limit the tra
Page 155 and 156: disease centers for training, resea
Page 157 and 158: Lanciotti RS et al. (1999) Origin o
Page 161 and 162: Plant diseases still affect human h
Page 163 and 164: Climate ChangeThe predicted transit
Page 165 and 166: In addition to the NPDRS and the NP
Page 167 and 168: arely have a realistic understandin
Page 169 and 170: National Research Council (NRC) (20
Page 173 and 174: our universities we can increase aw
Page 175 and 176: evidence and no microbiologic evide
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PreventionMuch can and should be do
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Figure 3. Selected recent multi-sta
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Figure 6. PulseNet electronic commu
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Figure 10. All Salmonella Typhimuri
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Figure 13. Listeriosis in the Unite
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Figure 15. Case definitions for clu
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Figure 18. The surveillance process
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Figure 20. Etiology of acute gastro
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I will discuss emerging intentional
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low-level contamination is on-going
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Sometimes these supply chains fall
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Clearly, the food system is globall
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Figure 13. 2010 Cocoa and cocoa-pre
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damage on those who profit from the
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target population. In their lives,
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it before it reaches the consumer.
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Shaun Kennedy is director of the Na
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ing replacements for cream, for exa
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safety system in reality by guarant
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Figure 2 shows the types of identif
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on better standards for Chinese sta
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Figure 6. Skim-milk-powder project:
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Jeffrey C. Moore is a scientific li
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John Besser: I was a little mystifi
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forensic purposes, as used with OJ
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my farmer friends thought I was cra
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Minnesota’s HeritageAs to why som
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in reality, legislation alone won
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The other aspect of this challenge
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private industry, enhancing the pro
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But it does seem that the United St
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Cathie Woteki is under secretary fo
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We offer the following comments and
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Ehlke, NancyUniversity of Minnesota
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Lumor, StephenUniversity of Minneso
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National Agricultural Biotechnology
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