Food Security - National Agricultural Biotechnology Council ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Systems and Risk Analysis for Food Protectionand SecurityDetlof von WinterfeldtInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburg, Austriadetlof@iiasa.ac.atAs I put this presentation together, I reflected on the two streams of research that I havepursued for the past decade. One is systems analysis which is my current job and theother is risk analysis. I serve as director for CREATE, the National Center for Risk andEconomic Analysis of Terrorism Events at the University of Southern California, the firstcenter of excellence funded by the Department of Homeland Security. Of course, Minnesotais home to the second center of excellence, the National Center for Food Protectionand Defense, which is represented here by Director Emeritus Frank Busta. At CREATE,our primary focus is on risk analysis applied to terrorism and most of my examples arefrom that area. Since 2009, I have been the director also of the International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. There, our tools are formsof modeling applied to global problems, including the major theme of water security.Other themes are energy, climate change and policy. I will outline systems analysis andrisk analysis, and provide three examples, and prioritize some terrorism issues.Systems AnalysisWhy systems analysis? Here are quotes by Larry Summers1 from 2009 after readingDecision Analysis by Howard Raiffa, IIASA’s first director:Many children were taught to believe in God, I came to believe in the power ofsystems analysis.1The 71st United States secretary of the treasury from 1999 to 2001 under President Clinton, and director ofthe National Economic Council for President Obama until November 2010.105
and from the IIASA Strategic Plan 2011–2020:Today, policymakers around the globe ask for problem-focused, solution-oriented,interdisciplinary research to help them with their complex decisions. They maynot know it, but they are really asking for systems analysis.Systems analysis is a group of model-simulation analysis tools—applied mathematicsif you will—specifically applicable to very complex systems that undergo dynamicchanges and are fraught with uncertainty. A classic example of a problem that lends itselfto systems analysis is the collapse in the financial system, which indicated many of thosefeatures and which we are not very good at modeling. Ecosystems are another area wherewe are applying it, energy systems, food production, and so on. All of this is appliedmathematics, but, more importantly, it is guided by some major overriding factors: theanalysis should be problem-focused and solution-oriented. You start with the problem.You don’t start with a mathematical model and look for a problem, and you look forsolutions, not necessary optimal solutions but acceptable solutions, and eliminate poorsolutions. The model is usually developed by a multidisciplinary team taking a holisticview of the problem.Risk AnalysisWhy risk analysis? Michael Chertoff 2 has stated the following in several versions:We have to identify and prioritize risks—understanding the threat, thevulnerability and the consequence. And then we have to apply our resources ina cost-effective manner.Frequently, I use that quote to motivate risk analysis. It’s what risk analysis is supposedto do, i.e. help decision-makers. It is a combination of risk assessment and managementthat involves identifying the risks, quantifying them—i.e. quantifying the possibilities ofevents that could occur as well as quantifying their consequences—and then looking atdecision-opportunities, intervention and risk reduction, and evaluating them. The toolsthat we use in risk analysis are on one level just formal expert elicitation of probabilities.Often event trees and fault trees, Bayesian networks and influence diagrams are used. Thecombination of systems analysis and risk analysis can move us forward in a qualitativestep when we need them for problems like systemic risk in the financial sector, ecosystemrisk, food risk, and so on.Challenges of TerrorismTerrorism imposes particular challenges. Terrorists tend to search for high vulnerabilitiesand consequences, unlike technological or natural disasters that occur randomly. Theyobserve our defenses and try to attack the weakest remaining links, then change theirmodes and targets of attack. They also try to create events that produce ripple effectsthrough instilling fear and eliciting behavior change that can be more damaging than thedirect results of the event. For example, the direct cost of 9/11 was $20 million to $302Second United States secretary of homeland security under Presidents G.W. Bush and Obama.106 Food Security: The Intersection of Sustainability, Safety and Defense
Page 2:
2011National Agricultural Biotechno
Page 5 and 6:
NABC Report 23Food Security: The In
Page 7 and 8:
AcknowledgmentsNABC’s twenty-thir
Page 9 and 10:
Participants in the Student Voice a
Page 11 and 12:
123 Preparing for Emerging and Unkn
Page 13 and 14:
Food Security: The Intersection of
Page 15 and 16:
These interconnected threads demand
Page 17 and 18:
In the developed world, it will req
Page 19 and 20:
On the other hand, his definition o
Page 21 and 22:
Plenary Session 4. Emerging Biotech
Page 23 and 24:
12 Food Security: The Intersection
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
The participants’ responses did n
Page 29 and 30:
they are safe. Cultural barriers ca
Page 31 and 32:
• Hydrological mapping, as in Min
Page 33 and 34:
• Food security is a multidiscipl
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
awareness beyond anything that advo
Page 41 and 42:
• Some research results indicate
Page 43 and 44:
change, reduce or remove GHG emissi
Page 45 and 46:
perspectives and priorities differ
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Water• Withdrawals from the Color
Page 51 and 52:
Efficient Use of Resources• We ne
Page 53 and 54:
• Foley is working with Google to
Page 55 and 56:
drinking water, stormwater, agricul
Page 57 and 58:
Table 1A. Issues, strategies and de
Page 59 and 60:
The Framework in Summary—A Ten- a
Page 61 and 62:
If funded, Research Implementation
Page 63 and 64:
If funded, Research Implementation
Page 65 and 66: to be initiated in the first five y
Page 67 and 68: Deborah Swackhamer is professor and
Page 69 and 70: These under-nutrition woes are not
Page 71 and 72: gies. Agricultural sustainability r
Page 73 and 74: Investment in TechnologyImproved pe
Page 75 and 76: Last November, the Forum announced
Page 77 and 78: Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable
Page 79 and 80: Food and Agriculture Organization (
Page 81 and 82: 70 Food Security: The Intersection
Page 83 and 84: Richard Isaacson (University of Min
Page 85 and 86: possibility of cross-pollination th
Page 87 and 88: in part to companies like Cargill w
Page 89 and 90: Ralph Hardy (National Agricultural
Page 91 and 92: and the impacts those things have o
Page 95 and 96: Analyses of multiple de-greening ci
Page 97 and 98: June Medford, a professor of biolog
Page 99 and 100: Genetically Modified CropsIt is cle
Page 101 and 102: the toxin levels are higher than wo
Page 103 and 104: • Separate common species• Sepa
Page 105 and 106: We have a similar situation in the
Page 107 and 108: ReferencesLövei GL et al. (2009) T
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1. Canada’s food-safety sy
Page 111 and 112: However, significant challenges rem
Page 113 and 114: confirmed cases in seven provinces,
Page 115: 104 Food Security: The Intersection
Page 119 and 120: provided software support. We also
Page 121 and 122: Figure 4. Biological agents (classi
Page 125 and 126: Detlof von Winterfeldt is the direc
Page 127 and 128: Medford: For things like explosives
Page 129 and 130: Robert Buchanan (University of Mary
Page 131 and 132: Ishimaru: In particular with wheat,
Page 133 and 134: Duplessis: In terms of microfluidic
Page 137 and 138: Emergence/Re-EmergenceRegarding eme
Page 139 and 140: • Anticipate and prevent the emer
Page 141 and 142: AcuteWith a new emergence, the need
Page 143 and 144: Assessing Immune StatusDuring an ou
Page 145 and 146: Table 1. Recent zoonotic agents ide
Page 147 and 148: Figure 2. The impact of culling she
Page 149 and 150: ecognized as a new disease among ca
Page 151 and 152: The West Nile virus is another dram
Page 153 and 154: deer in an attempt to limit the tra
Page 155 and 156: disease centers for training, resea
Page 157 and 158: Lanciotti RS et al. (1999) Origin o
Page 161 and 162: Plant diseases still affect human h
Page 163 and 164: Climate ChangeThe predicted transit
Page 165 and 166: In addition to the NPDRS and the NP
Page 167 and 168:
arely have a realistic understandin
Page 169 and 170:
National Research Council (NRC) (20
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
our universities we can increase aw
Page 175 and 176:
evidence and no microbiologic evide
Page 177 and 178:
food-preservation technologies and
Page 179 and 180:
concern, particular products of con
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
PreventionMuch can and should be do
Page 187 and 188:
Figure 3. Selected recent multi-sta
Page 189 and 190:
Figure 6. PulseNet electronic commu
Page 191 and 192:
Figure 10. All Salmonella Typhimuri
Page 193 and 194:
Figure 13. Listeriosis in the Unite
Page 195 and 196:
Figure 15. Case definitions for clu
Page 197 and 198:
Figure 18. The surveillance process
Page 199 and 200:
Figure 20. Etiology of acute gastro
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
I will discuss emerging intentional
Page 205 and 206:
low-level contamination is on-going
Page 207 and 208:
Sometimes these supply chains fall
Page 209 and 210:
Clearly, the food system is globall
Page 211 and 212:
Figure 13. 2010 Cocoa and cocoa-pre
Page 213 and 214:
damage on those who profit from the
Page 215 and 216:
target population. In their lives,
Page 217 and 218:
it before it reaches the consumer.
Page 219 and 220:
Shaun Kennedy is director of the Na
Page 221 and 222:
ing replacements for cream, for exa
Page 223 and 224:
safety system in reality by guarant
Page 225 and 226:
Figure 2 shows the types of identif
Page 227 and 228:
on better standards for Chinese sta
Page 229 and 230:
Figure 6. Skim-milk-powder project:
Page 231 and 232:
Jeffrey C. Moore is a scientific li
Page 233 and 234:
John Besser: I was a little mystifi
Page 235 and 236:
forensic purposes, as used with OJ
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
my farmer friends thought I was cra
Page 241 and 242:
Minnesota’s HeritageAs to why som
Page 243 and 244:
in reality, legislation alone won
Page 245 and 246:
The other aspect of this challenge
Page 247 and 248:
private industry, enhancing the pro
Page 249 and 250:
But it does seem that the United St
Page 251 and 252:
Cathie Woteki is under secretary fo
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
We offer the following comments and
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259 and 260:
Page 261 and 262:
Ehlke, NancyUniversity of Minnesota
Page 263 and 264:
Lumor, StephenUniversity of Minneso
Page 265:
National Agricultural Biotechnology
show all

Food Security - National Agricultural Biotechnology Council ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?