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Figure 33. Relative probabilities (RP) of selected agents(given a bioterrorism attack—hypothetical expert).Systems with InterdependenciesLos Angeles airport and Long Beach harbor are complex systems that involve people movementand supply chains, and fully protecting them is tricky because necessary resourcesare lacking. So, decisions were needed as to where to place defensive resources. One ofour ideas that worked well was to use smart randomization. Everything can be protected byemploying a randomization scheme to protect valuable targets randomly and thus confuseterrorists. Accordingly, patrols, inspections and surveillance are randomized. A student ofours came up with a wonderful idea to use a Stackelberg game—a business game—alsocalled a leader-follower game. He developed a game that involves a defender and an attackerand two assets, asset A and asset B where asset A is more valuable than asset B. Ifonly asset A is protected then the attacker will attack asset B because he will know thatyou protect asset A and then you lose and the attacker gains. If the attacker is stupid andattacks A while you are protecting A then you win and the attacker loses. In contrast,if you protect B the attacker will attack A and not B. To solve this zero-sum game, youcan randomize between A and B and thereby find a way to get the attacker to achievethe minimum expected value. In our analysis, we extended this to non-zero-sum games,multiple targets, multiple attackers, with certain real-world constraints—patrol personnelhave to eat sometime, somewhere—with fast algorithms and real-world implementation.3Comm = communicable; Non Comm = noncommunicable.Winterfeldt109
Figure 4. Biological agents (classified) of high, medium and low risk on a relative scale.The assistant for randomized monitoring over routes (ARMOR) project was implementedin cooperation with the Los Angeles Police Department which provided inputs intoARMOR which were randomized by the game-theory algorithm and the randomizedschedule was then given back to the police. There was some override capability becauseflexibility is essential, but they never did change it during the first two years of operation.ARMOR is still being used at the airport and there is statistical evidence that theintervention rates a LAX improved substantially after the system was implemented. It isnow used also by the TSA to randomize the assignment of federal marshals on airplanes,and other projects.Combining Systems for Food ProtectionMy last example illustrates combining systems and risk analyses for food protection. Theinitial idea was to formulate a model of the food-supply chain and then to superimposea risk model. Although this is an elegant approach, it is also cumbersome. But, once you110 Food Security: The Intersection of Sustainability, Safety and Defense
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2011National Agricultural Biotechno
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NABC Report 23Food Security: The In
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AcknowledgmentsNABC’s twenty-thir
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Participants in the Student Voice a
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123 Preparing for Emerging and Unkn
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Food Security: The Intersection of
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These interconnected threads demand
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In the developed world, it will req
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On the other hand, his definition o
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Plenary Session 4. Emerging Biotech
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12 Food Security: The Intersection
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The participants’ responses did n
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they are safe. Cultural barriers ca
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• Hydrological mapping, as in Min
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• Food security is a multidiscipl
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awareness beyond anything that advo
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• Some research results indicate
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change, reduce or remove GHG emissi
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perspectives and priorities differ
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Water• Withdrawals from the Color
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Efficient Use of Resources• We ne
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• Foley is working with Google to
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drinking water, stormwater, agricul
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Table 1A. Issues, strategies and de
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The Framework in Summary—A Ten- a
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If funded, Research Implementation
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If funded, Research Implementation
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to be initiated in the first five y
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Deborah Swackhamer is professor and
Page 69 and 70: These under-nutrition woes are not
Page 71 and 72: gies. Agricultural sustainability r
Page 73 and 74: Investment in TechnologyImproved pe
Page 75 and 76: Last November, the Forum announced
Page 77 and 78: Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable
Page 79 and 80: Food and Agriculture Organization (
Page 81 and 82: 70 Food Security: The Intersection
Page 83 and 84: Richard Isaacson (University of Min
Page 85 and 86: possibility of cross-pollination th
Page 87 and 88: in part to companies like Cargill w
Page 89 and 90: Ralph Hardy (National Agricultural
Page 91 and 92: and the impacts those things have o
Page 95 and 96: Analyses of multiple de-greening ci
Page 97 and 98: June Medford, a professor of biolog
Page 99 and 100: Genetically Modified CropsIt is cle
Page 101 and 102: the toxin levels are higher than wo
Page 103 and 104: • Separate common species• Sepa
Page 105 and 106: We have a similar situation in the
Page 107 and 108: ReferencesLövei GL et al. (2009) T
Page 109 and 110: Figure 1. Canada’s food-safety sy
Page 111 and 112: However, significant challenges rem
Page 113 and 114: confirmed cases in seven provinces,
Page 117 and 118: and from the IIASA Strategic Plan 2
Page 119: provided software support. We also
Page 125 and 126: Detlof von Winterfeldt is the direc
Page 127 and 128: Medford: For things like explosives
Page 129 and 130: Robert Buchanan (University of Mary
Page 131 and 132: Ishimaru: In particular with wheat,
Page 133 and 134: Duplessis: In terms of microfluidic
Page 137 and 138: Emergence/Re-EmergenceRegarding eme
Page 139 and 140: • Anticipate and prevent the emer
Page 141 and 142: AcuteWith a new emergence, the need
Page 143 and 144: Assessing Immune StatusDuring an ou
Page 145 and 146: Table 1. Recent zoonotic agents ide
Page 147 and 148: Figure 2. The impact of culling she
Page 149 and 150: ecognized as a new disease among ca
Page 151 and 152: The West Nile virus is another dram
Page 153 and 154: deer in an attempt to limit the tra
Page 155 and 156: disease centers for training, resea
Page 157 and 158: Lanciotti RS et al. (1999) Origin o
Page 161 and 162: Plant diseases still affect human h
Page 163 and 164: Climate ChangeThe predicted transit
Page 165 and 166: In addition to the NPDRS and the NP
Page 167 and 168: arely have a realistic understandin
Page 169 and 170: National Research Council (NRC) (20
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our universities we can increase aw
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evidence and no microbiologic evide
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food-preservation technologies and
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concern, particular products of con
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PreventionMuch can and should be do
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Figure 3. Selected recent multi-sta
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Figure 6. PulseNet electronic commu
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Figure 10. All Salmonella Typhimuri
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Figure 13. Listeriosis in the Unite
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Figure 15. Case definitions for clu
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Figure 18. The surveillance process
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Figure 20. Etiology of acute gastro
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I will discuss emerging intentional
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low-level contamination is on-going
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Sometimes these supply chains fall
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Clearly, the food system is globall
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Figure 13. 2010 Cocoa and cocoa-pre
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damage on those who profit from the
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target population. In their lives,
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it before it reaches the consumer.
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Shaun Kennedy is director of the Na
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ing replacements for cream, for exa
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safety system in reality by guarant
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Figure 2 shows the types of identif
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on better standards for Chinese sta
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Figure 6. Skim-milk-powder project:
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Jeffrey C. Moore is a scientific li
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John Besser: I was a little mystifi
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forensic purposes, as used with OJ
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my farmer friends thought I was cra
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Minnesota’s HeritageAs to why som
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in reality, legislation alone won
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The other aspect of this challenge
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private industry, enhancing the pro
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But it does seem that the United St
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Cathie Woteki is under secretary fo
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We offer the following comments and
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Ehlke, NancyUniversity of Minnesota
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Lumor, StephenUniversity of Minneso
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National Agricultural Biotechnology
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