Nuclear Energy

The Sustainable Alternative to Nuclear Energy
Part I: The Official Argument
Chapter 10
The Indian government’s argument for embracing nuclear energy in a big way rests on the
premise that GDP growth requires a huge increase in electricity generation.
In 2005, the Planning Commission of India appointed a high powered committee to make
recommendations on the future of India’s energy policy. The Committee submitted its final report,
the “Integrated Energy Policy (IEP)” in August 2006. According to this report, “India needs to
sustain an 8% to 10% economic growth rate, over the next 25 years, if it is to eradicate poverty and
meet its human development goals. To deliver a sustained growth rate of 8% through 2031-32 and
to meet the lifeline energy needs of all citizens …power generation capacity must increase to nearly
8,00,000 MW (by 2031-32) from the current capacity of around 1,60,000 MW inclusive of all
captive plants.” dciii
It is in the context of this mammoth future demand projection that the government justifies
its massive nuclear energy program. It is expecting around 8% of this demand, about 63,000 MW,
to be met from nuclear power plants dciv – from the 4560 MW at present. Justifying this giant leap in
nuclear power generation, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, while speaking at the inauguration of a
power plant in West Delhi on 24 March 2008, stated: “The economy is growing at 8-9 per cent per
annum. With growing urbanisation and rising prosperity, the demand for electricity is outpacing
existing sources of supply.” And so, he added, India needed to widen its choices for electricity,
which should include alternative resources like nuclear power. dcv The same argument is made by
many noted intellectuals of the country.
Part II: The IEP Vision Statement: Unsustainable Projections
The vision statement of the IEP quoted above estimates that future generation capacity
needs to increase by 5 times by 2032. The IEP has apparently based its estimation of the required
increase in electricity generation on the assumption that demand would grow at a compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of about 6.4% with respect to the base figure of 153,000 MW in 2006.
A number of experts have critiqued the methodology used by India’s energy planners to make
forecasts of energy consumption. Even assuming that the economy will grow at an average rate of
8% over the next 25 years, by extrapolating from recent figures of growth rate of the Indian
economy and growth of electricity generation, they show that these projections are exaggerated. dcvi
The reason why policy planners make such inflated forecasts is because this then serves as a
justification for huge investments in setting up power plants, thereby earning huge profits for the
private sector companies who get the construction orders.
IEP:
However, let us leave aside this issue and analyse the IEP vision statement. According to the
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