Nuclear Energy

Let us now take a closer look at the nuclear projects under construction: cclxxxvi
13 reactors, one quarter of the total, have been listed as “under construction” for over 20 years.
Of these, 8 reactors do not have an official (IAEA) planned start-up date even today.
In fact, of the 52 reactors under construction, 24 projects don't have an official (IAEA) planned
start-up date.
Over two-thirds (36) of the units under construction are listed in four countries alone (China,
India, Russia, South Korea), with China alone accounting for 16 of them. All of these
nations have historically not been very transparent about the status at their construction sites.
Past experience has shown that even a reactor in an advanced stage of construction is no
guarantee for grid connection and power supply. The French Atomic Energy Commission
(CEA) published statistics on “cancelled orders” through 2002. The CEA listed 253
cancelled orders in 31 countries, many of them in advanced construction stage. After that it
stopped publishing statistics on cancellations.
The renowned independent consultant, Mycle Schneider, along with professor for energy policy
Steve Thomas, and consultants Antony Froggatt and Doug Koplow, have in their The World
Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009, calculated the minimum number of plants that would have to
come on-line over the next decades in order to maintain the same number of operating plants as
there were on August 1, 2009 (435). While many nuclear utilities envisage reactor lifetimes to be
of at least 40 years, and some have even applied for and obtained licenses for operating their
reactors for more than 40 years, the report points out that these seem to be rather optimistic
projections, considering the fact that the average age of all 123 units that have already been closed
is about 22 years. Nevertheless, for their calculations, the authors assume that each of the presently
operating and in-construction reactors will have a life of 40 years.
With these assumptions, the report finds that in order to maintain at least 435 operating reactors
worldwide (the same number as at present) in the coming decades, 42 reactors (16,000 MW) would
have to be planned, built and started up by 2015 (that is, one every month and a half), in addition to
the 52 units currently under construction; and that further, an additional 192 units (170,000 MW)
would have to be constructed and brought on-line over the following 10-year period (which means,
one reactor would have to come on-line every 19 days). cclxxxvii
Considering that it takes more than a decade of planning, regulatory processes, construction and
testing before a reactor can produce electricity cclxxxviii , this means that it is going to be practically
impossible to maintain, let alone increase, the number of operating nuclear power plants over the
next 20 years.
Therefore, despite all the optimism shown by the international nuclear industry and its official
spokespersons, not only is it presently in decline, all indications are that this trend is going to
continue in the near future.
3. In Conclusion
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