The Little Village Gang Violence Reduction Project in Chicago

Our best model for predicting change in self-reported total violence offenses for youthwho increased (or experienced no change in) total violence offenses between Time I and TimeIII also includes seven variables: number of gang avoidance actions at Time III but not Time I,as in the above model (ranging from 0 to 5); gang size at Time III (see above); household totalyearly illegal income at Time III; total monthly illegal income of youth at Time III; total monthlylegal income of youth at Time III; gets along with siblings at Time III (1 = always/most of thetime) (0 = sometimes/never); and number of days per week carrying a gun at Time III (rangesfrom 0 to 7).This change model explains 68.0% of total variance in the equation. The characteristicsof youth who show no change or get worse in terms of an increase in total violence offenses are:not avoiding activities or situations which expose them to gang crime; perceiving an increase ingang size or viewing and identifying with the gang as a growing and powerful entity; havinglimited access to either or both illegal and legal income; getting along well or identifying withsiblings who may be gang members; and often carrying a gun (Table 10.14).The addition of two more variables in this model – fear of walking alone because of gangconcerns and gap between occupation aspirations and expectations – would have produced aneven more powerful (but perhaps less efficient) model, contributing 74.0% of the total variancein the model for predicting changes in total violence offenses of youth who have unchanged orincreased violence rates.This last model indicates that hard-to-change and resistive, violent gang-youth arecharacterized by high levels of personal disturbance or disorientation. Such youth do not avoidhigh-risk gang situations; they are highly fearful, and frequently carry a gun; they see the gang as10.33