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The Little Village Gang Violence Reduction Project in Chicago

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program period and the co-relative offense dependent variables differ <strong>in</strong> each of the models.We note that the length of detention/<strong>in</strong>carceration had significant effects on thedependent variables (arrest change), but the direction dur<strong>in</strong>g the program period tended to bepositive, while it tended to be negative <strong>in</strong> the pre-program period. In other words, most youthwho <strong>in</strong>creased their number of arrests, regardless of type of arrest, had relatively short stays <strong>in</strong>conf<strong>in</strong>ement <strong>in</strong> the pre-program period, but considerably longer stays at <strong>in</strong> the program period.This was particularly true for violence arrests. In general, length of time <strong>in</strong> conf<strong>in</strong>ement did nothave a differential effect on the program, comparison, and quasi-program youth samples.We describe the f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs of the seven models <strong>in</strong> the pre-program period <strong>in</strong> some detail,i.e., mean arrests for the total of all three samples, for the three samples separately, for the threeage categories separately, and, f<strong>in</strong>ally, for the samples by age categories. <strong>The</strong> specific numbersof program, quasi-program and comparison youth by levels of arrests and types of offenses <strong>in</strong> thepre-program period, for each of the model analyses below, is described <strong>in</strong> Table 11.2.Aga<strong>in</strong>, <strong>in</strong> the analyses that follow we refer to the pre-program period as Time I, and theprogram period as Time II.Model I: Total Arrest DifferencesIn the first model, the level of total arrests at Time I, the age category of the youth atTime I, and time <strong>in</strong> secure conf<strong>in</strong>ement (especially at Time II) are each highly significant (p =0.001) <strong>in</strong> expla<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g variance <strong>in</strong> the dependent variable, difference <strong>in</strong> total arrests between TimeI and Time II. Level of detention and/or <strong>in</strong>carceration at Time I and the <strong>in</strong>teraction of the agecategory and the particular sample are also statistically significant, respectively at p = 0.018 and11.7

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