The Little Village Gang Violence Reduction Project in Chicago

Chapter 12Modeling Program Effects: An Integrated AnalysisIn this chapter we focus on the specific effects of the Project on program youth based onan integrated analysis of variables across the data sets described in the previous three chapters(9, 10, and 11). We examine program effects, specifically the direct and indirect effects of theworkers’ activities, on the reduction of youth arrests. We try to answer two sets of questions insome interrelated fashion: what specific patterns of program services/contacts are associatedwith the youth’s reduction of specific categories of arrests, especially for violence and drugcrime?; and what elements of the youth’s life experience and social adaptation are affected byprogram staff, (structure and efforts) which in turn contribute to the reduction of arrests?We assume that changes in the individual program youth’s delinquent or deviantbehavior are a function of changes in his relationship to his social circumstances, which may beinfluenced by Project workers. In other words, the program probably operates through a varietyof mediating effects. In the course of counseling, the youth may decide to leave the gang, obtaina legitimate job, spend more time with a wife or girlfriend rather than gang members, lower joband income aspirations to realistic levels, and perceive the community as a good (or better) placeto live, any of which may more directly affect his pattern of criminal behavior. The strategy,quantity and quality of the workers’ efforts may affect these relationship changes, which may bethen directly associated with changes in the youth’s deviancy patterns. The interrelationship ofthese variables may predict or explain the youth’s reduction of gang-related crime.Based on the findings of the analysis in the previous three chapters, we conclude thatprogram youth lowered their levels of specific categories of crime during the program period,12.1