SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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AN ERA OF RAPID AGEING
Asia-Pacific today is ageing more rapidly than
all other regions except Latin America and the
Caribbean (Figure 4.1). In countries of the West,
the doubling of the share of older people, from
7 percent to 14 percent, took about a century,
whereas it is occurring in countries of Asia-Pacific
over a compressed two to three decades
(Figure 4.2). For example, in France, this process
took 115 years, compared to a mere 26 in Japan
and an expected 18 in the Republic of Korea.
Asia-Pacific has the world’s largest number
of older people at 489 million, of whom over
209 million live in China. By 2050, the region
will have more than 1 billion older people (Table
4.1). 2 The share of older people in Asia-Pacific
populations, having doubled from 6 percent in
1975 to almost 12 percent in 2015, is projected
to reach about 25 percent of the population by
the middle of this century. 3
Subregionally, the share of older people is
currently largest in East Asia and smallest in
South Asia (Figure 4.3 and Table 4.1). The
level and pace of ageing across the region is
diverse, ranging from aged richer countries such
as Japan and the Republic of Korea; to rapidly
aging middle-income countries such as China,
Thailand and Sri Lanka; to several low- or
lower-middle-income younger countries such
as Cambodia, India, Lao Peoples Democratic
Republic and Nepal, which will only start to age
rapidly two or three decades from now.
Among countries, the proportion of older
people ranged from 4 percent in Afghanistan to
over 33 percent in Japan in 2015. Countries with
the lowest current shares, aside from Timor-Leste,
will likely have larger proportions by 2050,
ranging from about 9 percent in Afghanistan to
around 25 percent in the Maldives. The older
populations of India and China will be around
19 percent and 37 percent in 2050, rising from
about 9 percent and 15 percent, respectively
(Figure 4.4).
The demographic transition of large and
populous countries and territories defines the
course of ageing in the region. In 2015, seven
Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, China,
India, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan and the Philippines,
had 420 million people aged 60 and
older, which accounts for 47 percent of people
BOX 4.1:
Who is old?
The United Nations and many demographers
use 60 years to refer to older people. In many
developed countries, however, age 65 is the
reference point for older people and often the
age at which people become eligible for oldage
social security benefits.
A consistent definition of who is older is further
challenged by the changing average human
lifespan. Around 1900, people on average
lived to between 45 and 50 years in developed
countries. Now, life expectancy there reaches
78 years.
Other definitions of ‘old’ go beyond chronological
age. Old age as a social construct is often
associated with a change of social roles and
activities, for example, becoming a grandparent
or a pensioner. It can also be considered a
stage at which functional, mental and physical
capacities are declining, and people are more
prone to disease or disabilities. Discussions
with older people in South Africa showed that
they associated old age both with experience
gained in life and increasing dependence on
others. Chronological definitions were not
viewed as so important.
Under any definition, older persons are a highly
diverse population group, considering age, sex,
ethnicity, education, income and health, among
other factors. Recognizing this is required in
order to adequately uphold the human rights
and address the needs of all older persons,
including those who are most vulnerable to
poverty, discrimination and other forms of
marginalization.
Source: UNFPA and HelpAge International 2012a.
aged 60 and above in the world. By 2050, they
will have just over half the global share—more
than 1 billion.
The ‘oldest old’ population, comprising
people above age 80, is rising fast in Asia-Pacific,
from 0.4 percent in 1950 to 1 percent in
2015. By 2050, the proportion will touch about
5 percent. The number of ‘oldest old’ will almost
quadruple, from 58 million in 2015 to nearly
246 million in 2050, 4 with the largest numbers
living in China, India and Japan. Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea,
Thailand and Viet Nam will also have signif-