SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

FERTILITY SETS THE TIMING AND PACE
Fertility may have the biggest impact on when
demographic change happens and how fast it
progresses. 26 All regions of the world have witnessed
remarkable declines in fertility rates, and
Asia-Pacific is no exception (Figure 1.9). The
regional rate is now just above the replacement
level of 2.1 children per woman—meaning that
enough babies are born to replace the existing
population. The average for the region, however,
masks a considerable amount of variation.
Countries and areas can be grouped into
three categories based on their fertility rates
(Figure 1.10). 27 They are considered advanced
in the process of fertility declines if levels have
already fallen below the population replacement
rate of 2.1 children per women. They are still in
the middle of the shift if levels are in the modest
range of 2 to 3.5. High fertility levels—above
3.5—indicate that change has just begun.
Advanced countries are mostly located in
East Asia with a few in South-east Asia. Having
more or less completed their fertility reduction,
many have witnessed, or will do so soon, a notable
decline in the working-age share of the
population, and are moving towards ageing.
Those in the middle of the shift include many
countries in South Asia. For example, in Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka,
FIGURE 1.9:
Fertility has fallen around the world
the proportion of youth and young workers is on
the rise, and more women are choosing to work.
Small island developing states in the Pacific are
generally at the start of fertility changes, with
children comprising 40 percent of their populations,
a share twice that of East Asia.
Of the 15 countries with the world’s highest
fertility rates, only one is in Asia-Pacific—
Timor-Leste, where the average woman has more
than five children during her lifetime. On the
other hand, of the 15 countries/territories/areas
with the lowest rates, well below replacement
level, 6 are in Asia-Pacific (Table 1.2).
Declines in fertility have generally been high
in East Asia, where rates fell from about 5.5 in
the early 1960s to 2 by the early 1990s. Oceania
is expected to stay above the replacement level
for the next four decades before dipping below it
in 2050. The situation there is somewhat unique,
since both Australia and New Zealand began
their demographic change early and are now
below replacement level. The Pacific subregion,
however, is still relatively high above it, at 2.4
to 2.7 in 2015.
Across the region as a whole, fertility has
fallen below the replacement level in 14 countries
and areas, mostly in East Asia and South-east
Asia. In 11 countries, mainly in South Asia,
fertility is just above replacement level. For
another 8 countries, typically small island de-
Declining fertility is
a key step towards
demographic
transformation
Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a.
29