SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

FIGURE 1.6:
The current low share of young and old dependents is destined to rise; more will be elderly
Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a.
Asia and South-east Asia until 2055. For the
region as a whole, however, population ageing
is happening at a much faster pace than it did,
historically, in Europe.
Oceania has a unique set of demographic
characteristics, since a baby boom, inward international
migration and an increasingly ageing
population are occurring all at the same time.
Consequently, the age structure of its population
is more evenly distributed. Today people aged
60 and above make up 16 percent of Oceania’s
population, with the share edging up to 23
percent by 2050.
In its share of young and old dependents,
Asia-Pacific was at its minimum in 2010 (Figure
1.6). As populations age, the share will
rise again. Many countries, including China,
are already moving in this direction. 22 Before
ageing accelerates, however, from 2010 to 2035,
the share of children aged 0 to 14 will remain
below 35 percent, and the share of the elderly
below 15 percent.
Currently, there are more boys than girls in
younger age groups. In older age groups, females
tend to outnumber males. By 2050, there may
be 52 million more women than men over age
60, a gap that widens after age 80. Ageing, as
in other regions, clearly has a marked gender
dimension.
MEDIAN AGE IS RISING
The world as a whole is growing older, with
the median age of people globally increasing
by seven years in the last four decades—from
22 in 1970 to 29 in 2015 (Figure 1.7). In 1970,
all regions had a median age below 35. Today,
three are at or above that level: Europe at 42,
North America at 38 and East Asia at 38. The
regions with the largest increase in median age
FIGURE 1.7:
All world regions have increasing median ages
Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a.
27