SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

1.
HOW
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Across Asia-Pacific, people’s choices and opportunities
define the region’s population dynamics and
prospects for human development. Understanding
of how this process unfolds, however, has shifted
dramatically since the early pronouncements of 18th
century British economist Thomas Malthus, who
warned that population increases would outstrip
food production, leading to mass hunger, poverty
and the spread of disease. This dire perspective
informed attempts to control population growth for
a number of decades, globally and within individual
Asia-Pacific countries as the number of people
spiraled upward at rates never known before.
By the time of the landmark 1994 International
Conference on Population and Development, new
perspectives and possibilities had emerged. Turning
from the notion that too many people simply posed
a threat, the conference considered “population,
poverty, patterns of production and consumption
and the environment [as] so closely interconnected
that none of them can be considered in isolation.” 1
In other words, population size matters, but so does
human behaviour, which inherently links to the capabilities
people have and their level of well-being.
The conference ushered in agreement on upholding
reproductive health and rights so that people can
make empowered choices about their families.
In recent years, there has been growing emphasis
on the age composition of populations, and the
relative shares of those who are young, old and in
their most productive middle years. It has become
increasingly clear that every country in the world,
regardless of its population size, has experienced
or will experience a ‘demographic transition’. This
begins with a fall in child mortality rates and ends
with an ageing population. In between, countries
go through a period of demographic opportunity,
where they have a greater share of working-age
people and relatively lower shares of dependent
young and older people.
Demographic transition has profound implications
for human development, where all people are able
to acquire the capabilities and opportunities they
need to achieve a decent life. Human development,
in turn, determines the course of the transition.
Each age group acts differently, with varying levels
of dependency and productivity, and requirements
for diverse goods and services. Young populations
must have good schools, for example, while older
ones need pensions. Middle-aged populations send
a high percentage of people into the workforce,
potentially powering up economic growth.
Challenges and opportunities arise during the
course of transition. Some ‘demographic dividend’ 2
invariably occurs when there are fewer young and
old dependents, and more people in the workforce.
But fully capitalizing on this depends largely on how
proactive countries are in steering the process.
Those that fail to plan ahead may realize only some
potential benefits. If human development does not
substantially move forward, for instance, some
part of the dividend may be lost, as when people
are inadequately educated for the labour market.
Squandering the dividend can result as well in losses
to human development, as in the failure to provide
enough opportunities for decent work.
From the perspective of human development, the
quality and inclusivity of the economic growth generated
by demographics shifts is critical. Demographic
transition, to truly bear a dividend, must build on
and contribute to greater human capabilities and
opportunities for well-being, and uphold human
rights and dignity. Further, development must be
17