SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
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BOX 1.5:<br />
Japan’s first and second demographic<br />
dividends<br />
Japan was the first Asian country to experience<br />
fertility decline and dramatic increases in life<br />
expectancy (Figure 1.16). In the 1950s, 1960s<br />
and to a lesser extent the 1970s, Japan enjoyed<br />
a first demographic dividend equal to about half<br />
a percentage point of economic growth, while<br />
the second dividend added about 1 percentage<br />
point. By the 1980s, the first dividend phase<br />
was over, but the second dividend continued<br />
to favour economic growth, adding between<br />
1 and 1.5 percentage points. By 2000, the<br />
first dividend had turned negative but was still<br />
balanced by the second dividend, indicating a<br />
modest net contribution to economic growth.<br />
FIGURE 1.16:<br />
Japan’s negative first dividend is<br />
balanced by a positive second dividend<br />
Source: Based on Mason 2015.<br />
HISTORIC CHANGES,<br />
LIMITED TIME<br />
Asia-Pacific is a vast region, diverse in its human<br />
development and demographic profile. But three<br />
broad, common patterns are evident. First, the<br />
region is experiencing sweeping demographic<br />
changes. Second, this is happening at a historically<br />
rapid pace—and it will not last forever.<br />
Finally, while East Asia has already reached<br />
a relatively advanced stage in its demographic<br />
transition, and thus needs to prepare for an<br />
ageing population, other subregions have a few<br />
decades to leverage potential dividends. Many<br />
Asia-Pacific countries are currently in the middle<br />
stages of change.<br />
Demographic shifts have far-reaching implications<br />
across all elements of human development.<br />
At the same time, appropriate policy<br />
choices and consistent investments in human<br />
development are critical to make the most of<br />
the demographic window of opportunity. If<br />
countries plan for the transition, build human<br />
capabilities, encourage creativity and innovation<br />
to flourish, and ensure the process is guided by<br />
mechanisms for participation and accountability,<br />
individuals and societies as a whole can end up<br />
better educated, healthier and wealthier.<br />
Lessons from one setting are hardly likely<br />
to be fully effective in others. There is little<br />
scope for a uniform set of recommendations to<br />
move forward. Each country needs to study its<br />
demographic trends, and their causes and consequences,<br />
with reference to their development<br />
goals. They must identify problems and take<br />
corrective actions accordingly. Political will to<br />
do this is crucial, particularly to steer the demographic<br />
dividend in inclusive ways that benefit<br />
all people, now and for generations to come.<br />
There is no one-sizefits-all<br />
strategy; each<br />
country needs to<br />
study its demographic<br />
trends and take<br />
actions accordingly<br />
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