SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

and will surpass 94 percent by 2050. By contrast,
urbanization rates in developing Asia-Pacific are
much lower, and will not exceed 50 percent of
the population until 2025.
Urban growth to date has been fastest in East
and South-east Asia (Figure 5.2). In East Asia,
urbanization is well above the world average, and
is expected to reach 78 percent by 2050, close
to that of Europe. Over a century, the number
of urban residents in the sub-region will have
shot up from 119 million to 1.25 billion people.
Urbanization in South-east Asia has followed
a relatively linear growth pattern, from 16
percent of the population in 1950 to 48 percent
in 2015, and to an expected 64 percent in 2050.
It has been driven mainly by middle-income
countries, especially Indonesia, Malaysia and
the Philippines, each of which will have an
urban majority by 2015. Low-income countries
remain more rural, with city residents in 2015
comprising only 21 percent of people in Cambodia,
33 percent in Timor-Leste and 34 percent
in Myanmar. Even in 2050, the urbanization
rate in Cambodia is projected to remain at less
than 40 percent.
In South Asia and the Pacific, urbanization
has evolved more slowly. The former reached
an urban share of 35 percent in 2015, with an
urban majority expected by 2050. Driven by
skyrocketing growth in the urban populations
of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, the number
of South Asian city dwellers will grow from 78
million to 1.2 billion between 1950 and 2050.
Nepal and Sri Lanka, however, will likely remain
at less than 40 percent urban in 2050. Oceania is
and will remain the world’s most heterogeneous
region, where levels of urbanization above 85
percent in Australia and New Zealand contrast
with those below 20 percent in countries such
as Papua New Guinea and Samoa.
There is considerable variation in the level
and speed of urbanization among Pacific islands.
Between 1970 and 2015, the share of the urban
population increased from 15 percent to 19
percent in Melanesia, 46 percent to 67 percent
in Micronesia, and 34 percent to 43 percent
in Polynesia. By 2050, urbanization rates are
projected to reach 28 percent, 72 percent and 48
percent, respectively. Due to continued reliance
on subsistence agriculture, traditional patterns
of land tenure and remote locations, countries
such as Papua New Guinea and Samoa will
continue urbanizing very slowly.
Looking at current urbanization rates, countries
can be grouped into three categories: low,
medium and high, based on 33.3 percent and
South Asia has
urbanized more slowly
than East Asia
FIGURE 5.2:
Urbanization rates vary considerably within Asia-Pacific
Source: Based on UN DESA 2014a.
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