SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
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2.<br />
MORE<br />
PEOPLE AT WORK:<br />
<strong>THE</strong> FOUNDATION FOR IMPROVED WELL-BEING<br />
Asia-Pacific today has a unique opportunity to<br />
accelerate human development, with more working-age<br />
people, and fewer older and younger<br />
dependents than at any point in its history. Its<br />
workforce is growing at an unprecedented rate,<br />
with 2.8 billion people aged 15-64 in 2015. The<br />
share of the working-age population increased<br />
from 58 percent in 1980 to its current peak of 68<br />
percent. Correspondingly, the share of dependents,<br />
young and old, has declined from 42 percent to its<br />
present minimum of 32 percent. 1<br />
These shifts offer many potential benefits. East<br />
Asian economies, further along in the demographic<br />
transition, have had tremendous success<br />
during periods with large working-age populations.<br />
In the last three decades, the share of China’s<br />
working-age population grew from 56 percent to<br />
a peak of 74 percent in 2010. During the same<br />
time, the country enjoyed stellar economic growth<br />
rates—double-digit figures in most years. As millions<br />
of Chinese workers flooded labour markets,<br />
China’s manufacturing and trade with the rest of<br />
the world took off. Japan enjoyed its own ‘miracle’<br />
of growth during 1950-1970, when its economically<br />
active population was large. Having reached<br />
higher levels of income during its most productive<br />
years, Japan is now better positioned to manage<br />
an ageing population.<br />
It is possible for countries to use the demographic<br />
dividend to become healthier, wealthier and better<br />
educated. This depends largely on inclusive,<br />
high-quality economic growth and investments in<br />
human capabilities. By contrast, if, for instance, the<br />
growth of decent jobs is not at par with an expanding<br />
labour force, unemployment and underemployment<br />
may rise, and wages will fall. The share of people<br />
who are working but still earning below the international<br />
poverty line is already large in Asia-Pacific,<br />
and their numbers are likely to escalate with more<br />
entrants into the labour force. Eventually, the failure<br />
to deliver on growing expectations could put social<br />
stability at risk.<br />
This chapter provides an overview of the working-age<br />
population in Asia-Pacific today. It explores the<br />
potential for capturing a demographic dividend, and<br />
analyses opportunities and challenges. Historical<br />
analysis sheds light with experiences from three<br />
countries—China, Japan and Thailand—that are<br />
further along in their demographic transitions. A<br />
final section looks at policy frameworks to channel<br />
demographic opportunities into expanded human<br />
development.<br />
Not all countries have been successful, however,<br />
in tapping the full human development benefits<br />
of demographic transition. Transition presents<br />
opportunities, but countries must then take actions<br />
to seize these. For those embarking on transition<br />
in the coming decades, the aim should be to make<br />
policy choices and investments that steer the<br />
process towards maximizing human development<br />
benefits. These need to reach all people while<br />
avoiding irreversible environmental harm.<br />
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