SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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160 Social, cultural and economic incentives drive migration to urban areas 1995 to 2010. In the region’s middle-income countries, the share of the population above age 60 is growing in both rural and urban areas. In Thailand, for example, it increased from 9 percent to 12 percent in urban areas and from 10 percent to 13 percent in rural areas between 2000 and 2010. While there is not yet a significant difference between rural and urban areas in middle-income countries, rural populations are slightly older. Asia-Pacific’s lower-income countries are in general still the youngest overall. In recent years, growth in the shares of urban working-age people have been most pronounced in lower-income countries. In Nepal, for example, the share increased from 59 percent to 65 percent from 1996 to 2010, and in Cambodia it went from 58 percent to 70 percent. 13 In both countries, shares of working-age people in rural areas also went up, but more slowly and from a lower level. In 2010, the working-age population accounted for 55 percent of people in rural Nepal and 61 percent in rural Cambodia. Middle-income countries are also experiencing a shift to higher shares of working-age people in cities. In Indonesia, for example, the share rose from 63 percent to 66 percent from 1995 to 2010, while the rural share went from 57 percent to 61 percent. Many countries have sizable urban young populations. People below age 14 make up 30 percent or more of urban residents in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Pakistan, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste. Their share is more than 20 percent in most countries with data available, with the exception of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. MAKING <strong>THE</strong> CHOICE TO MIGRATE The decision to migrate from a rural community to a city is a complex one, 14 driven by a mix of economic, social and political factors. Across Asia-Pacific, people move in search of better education, work and services, to escape climate risks and environmental damages, and to discover new social, political or cultural opportunities. Conditions in both rural and urban areas influence the reason to move. Many rural areas are characterized by poor education, declining FIGURE 5.8: The urban-rural gap in services such as electricity, particularly in less developed countries, can be wide Note: Data are for 2012. Source: Based on World Bank 2015a. agricultural productivity, low incomes from farming and few opportunities for off-farm rural employment. A pool of surplus labourers has been left in search of new options, with urban centres seen by many as offering more and better jobs, across a range of occupations, and for higher wages. Some urban areas are home to labour-intensive manufacturing and export-oriented industries that have been significant employers of migrant labour, as in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. 15 Remittances from migrant labour now comprise a large share of rural household income in many Asia-Pacific countries. 16 Big gaps in basic services also send rural people to cities (Figure 5.8). In Cambodia, 90 percent of urban residents have consistent access to electricity; less than 20 percent of rural dwellers do. In Nepal, migrants often choose destinations based on access to schools and hospi-
tals. 17 The importance of these preferences varies based on income level, as disparities in public services matter more to poorer populations. 18 Many rural and remote areas face escalating environmental pressures, such as from degraded land and deforestation, as well as threats from the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events that impact rural lives and livelihoods. Droughts and floods have caused people to abandon their rural communities for cities—often permanently and not by choice. Migration in response to environmental factors is not a new phenomenon, as people throughout history have moved based on seasonal weather changes or in response to extreme weather events. But the intensity of environmental change in recent years is contributing to a growing number of ‘climate migrants’. The 2010 floods in Pakistan, for instance, affected up to 20 million people, and after six months, the majority had not recovered their prior standard of living, returned home or regained access to services. Rural people were more commonly impacted, slower to recover and more likely to be out of their homes for a longer period. 19 Non-economic social, cultural and political reasons can also push rural-urban migration. 20 Cities are seen as places with more social and political freedoms than traditional rural communities. This can be especially true for people experiencing discrimination. 21 In some cases, the attraction is simply the excitement of modernity and the prospect of life in a dynamic metropolis. 22 Changing cultural norms are reflected in the perception of agricultural work as a lower status form of employment. All of these drivers appeal particularly to younger people, and help contribute to their predominance among rural-urban migrants. Cities can be especially attractive to women, who might have more limited opportunities in traditional rural areas. The opportunity to challenge existing social relations and norms, escape social constraints of the local community, and exercise new freedoms related to social interaction and political participation can be enticing reasons to migrate. A large share of rural-urban migrants have been women in some Asia-Pacific countries, 23 more commonly in South-east Asia, especially Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, than in South Asia. 24 KEEPING UP WITH AN URBAN BOOM: POTENTIALS AND PITFALLS Urbanization has long been linked with higher living standards. Most of the world’s richest countries are also the most urban (Figure 5.9). 25 In Asia-Pacific, excluding the fully urban islands of Hong Kong, China (SAR); Macao, China (SAR) and Singapore, the richest four countries—Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea—have more than 80 percent of their populations living in cities. Most of the poorer countries are still predominantly rural, including Afghanistan, Cambodia, Nepal and Papua New Guinea. A similar relationship holds for urbanization and human development (Figure 5.10), where urbanized countries have the highest Human Development Index scores, while the least urban have among the lowest. Cities concentrate industries and highly skilled workers, generating jobs, increasing levels of technology, and improving skills development and education. Through economies of scale, they can provide social services and infrastructure at costs that can be up to 30 percent to 50 percent cheaper than in sparsely populated rural areas. 26 People in cities typically end up healthier, better educated and wealthier than their rural counterparts. In most countries, urban areas are the main source of economic activity, usually exceeding their share of the national population. 27 Opportunities for innovation and the concentration of economic activity influence the birth of new industries, and the growth and transformation of existing ones. Transportation costs are lower, with large urban areas typically well connected to markets. Many are magnets for a disproportionate share of foreign direct investment. The world’s cities in aggregate now account for 80 percent of global GDP. 28 Large cities in China, with more than 1 million people in each, generate 56 percent of total national GDP, a contribution expected to reach 75 percent by 2030. 29 But how much individual cities produce varies, based on factors such as location and the quality of city governance. For those in the midst of demographic transition, it also depends Countries that are more urban are also richer 161
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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FOREWORD We live in times of great
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
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Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
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1.15 Population age-composition is
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Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
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Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
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FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
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a strong emphasis on protecting wor
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could provide job matching assistan
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Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
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WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
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Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
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sustainable, reaching everyone whil
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FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
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TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
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married couples to have children, a
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FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
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FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
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FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
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Improved overall human development
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TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
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“When relatively large generation
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38 Having fewer dependents on worki
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40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
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TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
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44
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2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
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encouraged labour-intensive industr
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FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
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A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
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BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
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FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
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WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
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FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
Page 124 and 125: Immunization saves children’s liv
Page 126 and 127: BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
Page 128 and 129: BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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Page 133 and 134: 4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
Page 135 and 136: FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
Page 137 and 138: TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
Page 139 and 140: BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
Page 141 and 142: BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
Page 143 and 144: FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
Page 145 and 146: BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
Page 147 and 148: TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
Page 149 and 150: FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
Page 151 and 152: BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
Page 153 and 154: cupy space in some public buildings
Page 155 and 156: ment bodies, encourage regular inte
Page 157 and 158: BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
Page 159 and 160: help coordinate the work of other g
Page 161 and 162: for older people. Many advanced cou
Page 163 and 164: action. Free public transport, and
Page 165: Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
Page 168 and 169: In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
Page 170 and 171: FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
Page 172 and 173: FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
Page 176 and 177: The benefits of urbanization have n
Page 178 and 179: BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
Page 180 and 181: vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
Page 182 and 183: Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
Page 184 and 185: TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
Page 186 and 187: 172 City governments need to have t
Page 188 and 189: Investing in essential infrastructu
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Page 192 and 193: BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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Page 197 and 198: 6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
Page 199 and 200: Development Report argues, decent w
Page 201 and 202: with ministries overseeing youth, e
Page 203 and 204: This is an urgent priority in a reg
Page 205 and 206: SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
Page 207 and 208: plan automatically enrols people in
Page 209 and 210: BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
Page 213 and 214: End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
Page 215 and 216: 63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
Page 217: produces 40 percent of total econom
Page 220 and 221: 206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
Page 222 and 223: 208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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