SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has large portions of people living in multidimensional poverty Source: UNDP 2014. 22 to provide for their needs. In South Asia, over half of people in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India lived in multidimensional poverty in 2010, compared to only 2 percent in the Maldives. 15 In East Asia and the Pacific, multidimensional poverty is most severe in Timor-Leste, affecting over 64 percent of the population, and lowest in Thailand, at only 1 percent. THE WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS REGION: A MAJOR TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY Home to 4.1 billion people in 2015, living at widely diverse stages of human development, Asia-Pacific is the most populous region in the world. 16 Around 56 percent of the world’s people live there, although the region occupies only about 23 percent of the earth’s land. 17 Population size has tripled in the last 65 years, and is expected to reach 4.84 billion in 2050. 18 Six of the world’s 10 most populous countries are located in the region—China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan—the first three alone account for 40 percent of all people alive today. 19 The region also has some of the least populous countries, such as Tokelau with 1,250 people, Niue with 1,610 people and Tuvalu with 9,916 people. Asia-Pacific has been described as a ‘demographic explosion region’, although a high population growth rate of about 3.2 percent in the second half of the 20th century has significantly slowed since 2000 (Box 1.2). Today, the rate hovers at about 1 percent, lower than the global average of 1.2 percent, and is expected to fall to 0.46 percent in the next four decades. Already, the slowdown is evident in almost all subregions, with variations. Annual population growth in East Asia is expected to shrink to -0.4 percent from 2015 to 2050, while rates in South-east and South Asia will likely descend to around 0.3 percent. Growth is currently highest in the Pacific subregion, but is also slowing, probably reaching 0.9 percent during the same period. In the future, over three-fourths of the increase in Asia-Pacific’s population will likely occur in South Asia, where total population will rise by 600 million by 2050. In East Asia, meanwhile, the population will probably remain largely unchanged or decline, shifting its regional share from 48 percent in 1970 to only 34 percent by 2050. By then, almost half of the region’s people will reside in South Asia. To a large extent, China and India, now home to 2.6 billion people, will drive demographic changes in the region and influence their consequences. India’s population will likely
BOX 1.2: A legacy of population policies Countries in Asia-Pacific have taken different approaches to population policy, with results, perspectives and choices evolving over time. CHINA: RETHINKING THE ONE-CHILD POLICY In 1978, viewing population control as a means to economic development, China initiated a voluntary programme to encourage families to have no more than two children. In 1979, a more stringent onechild policy began. Incentives to adhere included better job opportunities, and improved access to health care and education, while those who did not comply were penalized financially, socially, and in some extreme cases illegally through forced abortions and sterilizations. The policy led to a tremendous slowing of population growth. Along with other socioeconomic reforms, this has contributed to economic growth and poverty reduction in the last three decades. Some undesirable consequences, however, include a skewed sex ratio as families chose to have male children. China is now facing a rapidly ageing population and a shrinking labour force. In 2013, it began amending the policy to promote long-term, balanced development of its population as well as to deal with ageing. In 2015, China decided that families throughout the country could have up to two children. Despite the relaxation of the rules, however, many may still opt to only have one child, for reasons including the greater number of women working outside the home and the expense of raising children. INDIA: A SHIFT TOWARDS PROMOTING REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH In 1952, India became the first country in the developing world to initiate a state-sponsored family planning programme. It began establishing clinics to offer contraceptives that by 1961 numbered 4,000 across the country. By 1963, this programme was replaced with an ‘extended’ family planning campaign with time-bound targets. When this did not significantly slow population growth, India attempted a coercive approach with incentives to undergo sterilization during the 1975-1977 emergency regime. Public outcry led to the abandonment of this effort. Since 1977, expanded public health facilities have supported low-income households with contraception and family planning. Despite criticism about mass sterilizations in unhygienic, makeshift hospitals, voluntary sterilization has become prevalent among low-income groups. Contraceptive usage has more than quadrupled, from 13 percent of married women in 1970 to 55 percent in 2008. The fertility rate has declined from 5.7 children per woman in 1966 to 2.5 in 2013. Currently, the family planning programme is being repositioned to not only stabilize the population, but also to promote reproductive health, and reduce maternal, infant and child mortality and morbidity. INDONESIA: SUCCESSFUL COLLABORATION MAKES CONTRACEPTIVES EASILY ACCESSIBLE Indonesia doubled its contraceptive prevalence rate from 26 percent in 1976 to 62 percent in 2012, and halved its fertility rate from 5.6 to 2.5 children per woman. With the backing of religious groups and manufacturing establishments, among other actors, the Indonesian family planning programme has been one of the most effective collaborations between government and civil society in Asia. The Government has emphasized making contraception easily accessible to people across the country, initially through expanded health-care services. Community outreach has engaged local workers and village institutions to bring information and contraception to the doorsteps of rural residents, helping them learn about and make choices for family planning. Regular village meetings have also raised understanding and acceptance, and made contraceptives freely available. Changes in attitudes have meant that changes in practices took root. While Indonesia privatized hospitals in 1987, the withdrawal of public resources did not have a major impact on steadily declining fertility. THAILAND: THE FASTEST FALL IN FERTILITY Through Thailand’s National Family Planning Programme, the contraceptive prevalence rate increased by more than five times, from 14.4 percent in 1970 to 79.2 percent in 2012. The total fertility rate fell from 6.3 children per woman in 1967 to 1.5 in 2013. Concerted family planning advocacy began in 1971, including to increase awareness of the link between small families and economic well-being. Slogans stressed “the more children, the poorer.” The Government worked with the Population and Community Development Association, Thailand’s largest non-governmental organization, on creative and engaging ways to encourage families to have fewer children, as well as to make contraception widely available. Thailand’s fertility rate today has dipped to 0.8, falling faster than anywhere else in Asia-Pacific. Government policy has now shifted to preventing a further drop. The 11th national development plan aims to keep rates above 1.6 by encouraging Population policies and perspectives in Asia-Pacific are evolving over time 23
Page 1 and 2: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 3 and 4: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10: Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12: 1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14: Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16: Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17 and 18: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 19 and 20: FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
Page 21 and 22: a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24: could provide job matching assistan
Page 25 and 26: Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 27 and 28: WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
Page 29: Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33: sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 38 and 39: married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41: FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43: FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53: 38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55: 40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
Page 58 and 59: 44
Page 61 and 62: 2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64: encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68: A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
Page 69 and 70: BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
Page 71 and 72: FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
Page 73 and 74: WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
Page 75 and 76: FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
Page 79 and 80: make this a key aim of national dev
Page 81 and 82: investment climate, as well as enco
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
Page 85 and 86: Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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116
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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