SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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Strategies to make cities more inclusive and competitive can multiply the demographic dividend 12 decentralization and coordinate among different levels of government. Local institutions will need requisite technical and managerial skills, the ability to engage with the public, and strong capacities to design, implement, monitor and evaluate local public policies. Each city, regardless of size, needs a well-defined administrative area over which it has full autonomy, and a clear formula for intergovernmental transfers. As capacity for local administration improves, cities can often boost local resource mobilization, including through taxation, and plan more systematically for infrastructure investment, operations and maintenance. Cities at a more advanced stage of development can explore alternative instruments of finance, such as user fees, municipal bonds and public-private partnerships. The city of Ahmedabad in India pursued reforms related to local resource mobilization that enabled it to raise significant funds and transform its credit rating to AA. MAKE CITIES MORE COMPETITIVE AND INCLUSIVE Competitive cities attract new industries, investments and skilled workers to spur dynamic economic growth. Competitiveness is determined by factors such as infrastructure, educational and research institutions, and the quality of public administration. Much depends on the ability to nurture a capable workforce, and absorb its talents through the generation of decent work. A few Asia-Pacific cities such as Hong Kong, China (SAR) and Singapore have been hugely successful in attracting talent and investment, and ensuring prosperity and good public services for their citizens. Many more are struggling to cope with challenges such as the large-scale influx of migrants. Much needs to be done to tackle crippling infrastructure gaps, such as unreliable power systems, poor quality roads, inefficient ports and inadequate schools. Local economic development and job creation efforts should be at the heart of dialogue with the local business community, and local finance and educational institutions. Strong and vibrant cities are broadly inclusive, since exclusion, social or otherwise, is a critical impediment to human development. Infrastructure, services and decent employment opportunities need to reach all city residents; special measures may be needed for migrants, youth, older people, women and girls, and people with disabilities. Singapore offers an example of how this can happen. Ranked today as Asia’s greenest city, and as having the best business environment and being the best place to live, Singapore was once a city with polluted rivers and massive infrastructure and housing shortages. Bridging the still often wide gap in many Asia-Pacific cities between citizens and governments requires strengthening accountability, and increasing government transparency and openness. Citizen participation is important in building consensus and making local services most relevant to local needs. PURSUE MORE CONCENTRATED PATTERNS OF URBAN GROWTH, SUCH AS COMPACT CITIES In driving economic activity and human development gains, cities consume vast quantities of energy, water and other resources, and generate more waste than rural areas. More than half of the world’s most polluted cities are in Asia-Pacific. Increasingly, the costs of environmental degradation will be excessive and difficult to reverse, ever more so given the pace of urbanization. It will be far more cost-effective, and in line with commitments under Agenda 2030, to begin working now towards more sustainable cities. One essential measure is to foster urban agglomeration, and promote green and compact cities. These avoid the urban sprawl that can make public services more expensive and difficult to provide. They can dramatically decrease traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions. Restrictions on the expansion of urban boundaries are one way to encourage denser urban development. Countries such as China, India, Japan and the Republic of Korea have begun pursuing compact and smart cities, including to reduce per capita carbon emissions. In Seoul, for example, the metropolitan government plans to expand the renewable energy share from 1.5 percent in 2007 to 20 percent by 2030, with nearly half to come from hydro energy.
WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This Asia-Pacific Human Development Report considers demographic changes in the region today and in the near future, and assesses different approaches to managing transition in order to accelerate human development. The report also probes the issues of rapid urbanization and migration, both of which result from and influence demographic transition. Chapter 1 introduces key concepts of the demographic transition and dividend, and provides an overview of major human development and demographic changes in Asia-Pacific. Chapter 2 considers ways to maximize the dividend in countries with a large share of working-age people, with an emphasis on decent and productive employment and the effective investment of savings. Chapter 3 assesses investments that need to be made in the early stage of transition, particularly in children and youth so they are healthy, well-educated and can move readily into adult life. Chapter 4 takes up the issue of ageing, examining its challenges, but also exploring the many contributions of older people to societies and economies. In Chapter 5, urbanization is analysed as a phenomenon that can trigger and accelerate demographic transition and an associated dividend that can improve human development, if it is managed well. Chapter 6 highlights core policy options presented in the previous chapters. People are the real wealth of nations—and their well-being is the core purpose of this report. Much of Asia-Pacific has reached a point in history where a few short decades remain to reap a demographic dividend. It is unlikely that such an opportunity will come again. A demographic transition rooted in making advances in human capabilities, opportunities and freedoms that are inclusive and open to all will result in a tremendous leap forward. It will pay a high dividend in human development, now and for many generations to come. 13
Page 1 and 2: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 3 and 4: ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10: Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12: 1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14: Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16: Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17 and 18: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 19 and 20: FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
Page 21 and 22: a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24: could provide job matching assistan
Page 25: Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 29: Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33: sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
Page 38 and 39: married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41: FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43: FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53: 38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55: 40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
Page 58 and 59: 44
Page 61 and 62: 2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64: encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68: A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
Page 69 and 70: BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
Page 71 and 72: FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
Page 73 and 74: WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
Page 75 and 76: FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
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FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
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make this a key aim of national dev
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investment climate, as well as enco
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TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
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Even before leaving home, migrant w
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Promote health and safety at work:
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BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
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of resilient infrastructure are joi
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Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
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Commendable progress in education m
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Quality primary education mitigates
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In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
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Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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116
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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