SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

FIGURE 1.8:
The median age is high in East Asia compared to South Asia and developing Oceania
Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a.
28
over the past 40 years include East Asia, which
is up 17 years, and South-east Asia, up 10 years.
Median age rose in all Asia-Pacific countries,
except Afghanistan and Timor-Leste, 23 but
populations in South Asia and South-east Asia
are still among the youngest in the world.
By 2050, the median age globally is expected
to touch 36 years, and to rise to as high as 50
years in East Asia. Over the next 40 years, some
of the largest increases are expected in East Asia
and South Asia at 12 years, and South-east Asia
at 10. North America, Europe and Oceania will
have the lowest increases. 24
Within Asia-Pacific, in 2015, Japan had
the highest median age at 46.5 years, while
Afghanistan had the lowest at 17.5 years (Figure
1.8). By 2050, the Republic of Korea will
edge out Japan to have the highest at 53.9 years;
Timor-Leste will have the lowest at 24.3 years.
The largest increases in median age, of 16 to
18 years, are expected in Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Maldives, Nepal and Viet Nam. 25 Population
ageing will be well underway by 2050 in many
countries that currently have young populations.
DRIVERS OF A CHANGING
POPULATION
Many factors drive changes in the shares of
different ages in a population, but the three most
prominent ones occur as people start having
fewer children, live longer and migrate. Increased
socioeconomic development; improved
infrastructure, transport and communication;
better health care; and higher levels of sanitation,
hygiene and nutrition have all contributed to
declining child mortality, falling fertility rates
and increasing migration in the last century.