SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
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married couples to have children, and providing<br />
tax and other incentives for child development and<br />
well-being.<br />
BANGLADESH AND PAKISTAN:<br />
CONTRASTING EXPERIENCES<br />
Although Bangladesh and Pakistan had a common<br />
population policy and family planning programme<br />
until 1971, they began to follow different paths<br />
after splitting into two nations. Since then, in<br />
Bangladesh, contraceptive prevalence has risen<br />
dramatically and fertility fallen steadily. In Pakistan,<br />
contraceptive availability has increased, but remains<br />
at low levels; fertility has declined somewhat,<br />
but is still high.<br />
One crucial difference between the two countries<br />
is the level of political commitment and involvement<br />
of civil society. Both have been greater in<br />
Bangladesh. Hundreds of non-governmental organizations,<br />
for example, have participated in family<br />
planning activities in conjunction with programmes<br />
aimed at empowering women through education,<br />
employment and income generation.<br />
Source: The Economist 2015, BBC 2014, World Bank 2007, Sen 1994, Bose 1995, Santhya 2003, Rao 2004, World Bank 2015a,<br />
and Prusty 2014. Schoemaker 2005. World Bank 2007. Barnwal 2004. World Bank 2015c. WHO 2003. World Bank 2007.<br />
Age structures<br />
in countries have<br />
changed significantly,<br />
but in different ways:<br />
one-third of countries<br />
are young and onefourth<br />
are ageing<br />
24<br />
surpass China’s by 2022, possibly earlier.<br />
Accompanying declining population growth<br />
rates is Asia-Pacific’s unprecedented demographic<br />
change. Age structures have changed<br />
significantly, but in different ways. Out of 38<br />
countries and territories with age composition<br />
data, 13 are currently experiencing a ‘youth bulge’,<br />
or a rise in the proportion of people aged 15 to<br />
24. Others are witnessing a burgeoning portion<br />
of the working-age population, when the ‘window<br />
of demographic opportunity’ opens wide. 20<br />
Another 11 countries and territories are ageing,<br />
where at least 14 percent of the population is<br />
60 years and above.<br />
A tool to track what is happening in terms<br />
of age composition is the ‘population pyramid’<br />
(Figure 1.4). It shows that despite significant<br />
changes in Asia-Pacific’s population since 1950,<br />
the largest shifts are likely still ahead, between<br />
2015 and 2050. In 1950, a very wide base narrowing<br />
to a pointed tip indicated a youthful<br />
population. By 2015, the percentages of working-age<br />
and elderly people had risen—the largest<br />
group regionally was aged 25 to 29. By 2050,<br />
the proportion of children under age 15 will<br />
be less than half of what it was in 1950, while<br />
the share of people aged 60 and over will be<br />
more than three times what it was then. 21 The<br />
largest proportion of the population will be<br />
concentrated in the working-age middle of the<br />
pyramid, especially in two age groups: 30 to 44<br />
and 55 to 64. Over time, this share will contract,<br />
even as the number of working-age people will<br />
increase slightly.<br />
Age structure varies considerably for other regions.<br />
Sub-Saharan Africa still has a very young<br />
population, and while it will shift towards transition,<br />
it will overall remain youthful by 2050.<br />
Most of Europe’s population is concentrated in<br />
the 30 to 60 age group; by 2050, it will have a<br />
large old-age bulge. North America retains a<br />
relatively young population, with ageing moving<br />
at a much slower pace than in Europe, explained<br />
by factors such as high rates of immigration and<br />
high population growth among immigrants. Latin<br />
America and the Caribbean is still youthful,<br />
but can expect the number of elderly people to<br />
triple by 2050. The working-age population is<br />
projected to start declining after 2015 in Europe,<br />
2045 in Asia-Pacific, and 2050 in Latin America<br />
and the Caribbean. By contrast, it is expected<br />
to increase in sub-Saharan Africa until the end<br />
of the century.<br />
Within Asia-Pacific, all subregions had<br />
young populations in 1950, and all have seen<br />
shares of children below age 15 fall by 2015<br />
(Figure 1.5). By 2050, shares will likely further<br />
decline, alongside an upward swing in the shares<br />
of elderly people. But the region’s vast diversity<br />
is reflected in the different rates at which this is<br />
happening. The most dramatic declines will be<br />
seen in East Asia, where older people will likely<br />
move from being 17 percent of the population<br />
in 2015 to 37 percent in 2050. East Asia’s age<br />
distribution is exceptional, since it is at a more<br />
advanced stage of the demographic change. Its<br />
working-age population is expected to decline<br />
from 2020, a phenomenon not expected in South